MUMicron Technology, Inc.
Industry Semis memory Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months
Held at $878
What the podcasts say
3 bullish · 1 bearish · 4 speakers · 3 showsWhat investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.
- Bullish
- Bearish
- Bullish
- Bullish
Promises vs. what happened
16 claims · 8 decksEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 '25 revenue $8.70B ± $0.2B | Q4 '24 | $8.71B, on the midpoint | Held |
| FQ3 '26 revenue $33.5B ± $0.75B | Q2 '26 | $41.46B, 24% above the midpoint | Held |
| HBM market over $25B in CY25 | Q4 '24 | raised to over $35B; no measured size ever given | Held |
| Multiple billions of HBM revenue in FY25 | Q1 '25 | reached; then HBM revenue stopped being reported | Held |
| CY26 HBM supply sold out within months | Q4 '25 | done by the next deck, HBM4 included | Held |
| HBM4 in volume in CY26 | Q2 '25 | a quarter early; over $1B shipped by Jun '26 | Held |
| FY25 capex about $14B ± $0.5B | Q1 '25 | $13.8B, just under | Held |
| A brief inventory correction, then stronger shipments | Q1 '25 | held; bits up over 20% by FQ3 '25 | Held |
| HBM share to match DRAM share by Q4 '25 | Q2 '25 | 'on track' three times, then never mentioned again | Dropped |
| NAND wafer capacity cut over 10% by FY25 | Q2 '25 | never reported; new NAND fab instead | Dropped |
| HBM market 4x by 2028, over $100B by 2030 | Q1 '25 | pulled forward to 2028, then dropped from the decks | Open |
| First Idaho fab output in H2 CY27 | Q3 '25 | pulled in to mid-2027; open | Open |
| Bit shipments about +20% in CY26 | Q1 '26 | DRAM in line with industry; NAND cut below it | Open |
| Capital returns rise after 9 Dec '26, 100% of excess cash over time | Q3 '26 | open; no amount or schedule given | Open |
| FY26 capex about $18B | Q4 '25 | raised three times, to about $27B | Missed |
| NAND supply and demand balanced in CY25 | Q4 '24 | missed; wafer starts cut, prices fell | Missed |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, deck by deckThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26Q3
'26
GuidancePage one since Q3 '25
HBMOff page one Q2 '26
Data centrePage one since Q3 '26
ShortagePage one since Q3 '26
NANDFirst seen Q4 '24
ContractsNew Q1 '26 · Page one since Q3 '26
FabsFirst seen Q4 '24
on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
Results against guidance
“Micron delivered a strong finish to fiscal year 2024, with fiscal Q4 revenue at the high end of our guidance range, and gross margins and EPS above the high end of our guidance ranges.”
Deck Financial results FQ4 2024 · p. 4 ·
Results against guidance
“Micron achieved record revenue in fiscal Q1, with revenue, gross margins and earnings per share (EPS) all at or above the midpoint of our guidance range.”
Deck Financial results FQ1 2025 · p. 4 ·
Results against guidance
“Micron's strong competitive position and solid execution delivered record revenue in fiscal Q3, with revenue, gross margin, and EPS all exceeding the high end of our guidance ranges.”
Deck Financial results FQ3 2025 · p. 4 ·
Results against guidance
“Micron had an outstanding finish to fiscal 2025, delivering fiscal Q4 revenue, gross margin and EPS all above the high end of our updated guidance ranges.”
Deck Financial results FQ4 2025 · p. 4 ·
Results against guidance
“Micron had an outstanding start to fiscal 2026, delivering fiscal Q1 revenue, gross margin and EPS (earnings per share) well above the high end of our guidance.”
Deck Financial results FQ1 2026 · p. 4 ·
Results against guidance
“Micron delivered an exceptional fiscal Q2, with stellar records in revenue, gross margin, EPS (earnings per share) and free cash flow.”
Deck Financial results FQ2 2026 · p. 4 ·
Results against guidance
“Micron delivered an exceptional fiscal Q3, with significant records in revenue, gross margin and EPS (earnings per share) — all exceeding the high end of our guidance.”
Deck Financial results FQ3 2026 · p. 4 ·
HBM ramp, revenue and TAM
“We expect the HBM TAM to grow from approximately $4 billion in calendar 2023 to over $25 billion in calendar 2025.”
Deck Financial results FQ4 2024 · p. 8 ·
HBM ramp, revenue and TAM
“Our high-bandwidth memory (HBM) shipments were ahead of plan, and we achieved more than a sequential doubling of HBM revenue.”
Deck Financial results FQ1 2025 · p. 4 ·
HBM ramp, revenue and TAM
“In fiscal Q2, data center DRAM revenue reached a new record. HBM revenue grew more than 50% sequentially, to a new milestone of over”
Deck Financial results FQ2 2025 · p. 4 ·
HBM ramp, revenue and TAM
“In fiscal Q3, DRAM revenue reached a new record driven by a nearly 50% sequential growth in HBM revenue.”
Deck Financial results FQ3 2025 · p. 4 ·
HBM ramp, revenue and TAM
“In fiscal Q4, our HBM revenue grew to nearly $2 billion, implying an annualized run rate of nearly $8 billion, driven by the ramp of our industry-leading HBM3E products.”
Deck Financial results FQ4 2025 · p. 11 ·
HBM ramp, revenue and TAM
“We have completed agreements on price and volume for our entire calendar 2026 HBM supply, including Micron's industry-leading HBM4.”
Deck Financial results FQ1 2026 · p. 4 ·
HBM ramp, revenue and TAM
“At NVIDIA’s GTC (GPU Technology Conference), we announced that Micron has begun volume shipments of its HBM4 36GB 12H in the first quarter of calendar year 2026 and is designed for the NVIDIA Vera Rubin.”
Deck Financial results FQ2 2026 · p. 10 ·
HBM ramp, revenue and TAM
“HBM4 12-high volume ramp is tracking twice as fast as HBM3E 12-high, and we have already shipped over $1 billion in HBM4 revenue.”
Deck Financial results FQ3 2026 · p. 11 ·
Data center mix
“Our mix of data center revenue reached a record level in fiscal 2024, and we expect will grow significantly from here in fiscal 2025.”
Deck Financial results FQ4 2024 · p. 8 ·
Data center mix
“Data center revenue grew over 400% year over year and 40% sequentially, reaching a record level, with data center revenue mix surpassing 50% of Micron’s revenue for the first time.”
Deck Financial results FQ1 2025 · p. 4 ·
Data center mix
“Data center revenue more than doubled year over year and reached a record level, and consumer-oriented markets had strong sequential growth.”
Deck Financial results FQ3 2025 · p. 4 ·
Data center mix
“In fiscal 2025, Micron’s data center business reached a record 56% of total company revenue, with gross margins of 52%.”
Deck Financial results FQ4 2025 · p. 11 ·
Data center mix
“Data center server demand • AI demand is driving DRAM and NAND data center bit TAM (total addressable market) to exceed 50% of the industry TAM for the first time in calendar 2026.”
Deck Financial results FQ2 2026 · p. 9 ·
Data center mix
“Demonstrating Micron’s position as a leader enabling the AI era, our data center revenue exceeded $25 billion in fiscal Q3, or an annualized run rate of over $100 billion.”
Deck Financial results FQ3 2026 · p. 4 ·
Tight supply and how long it lasts
“Robust data center demand is exceeding our leading-edge node supply and is driving overall healthy supply-demand dynamics.”
Deck Financial results FQ4 2024 · p. 4 ·
Tight supply and how long it lasts
“Leading-edge DRAM supply remains tight, driven by robust demand in data center DRAM, including HBM, which will underpin our business results throughout fiscal and calendar 2025.”
Deck Financial results FQ1 2025 · p. 5 ·
Tight supply and how long it lasts
“We see the combination of AI data center demand and the ramp of HBM, and its associated trade ratio, contributing to tightness at the leading edge and constraining non-HBM DRAM supply.”
Deck Financial results FQ2 2025 · p. 5 ·
Tight supply and how long it lasts
“AI-driven demand is accelerating, and industry DRAM supply is tight.”
Deck Financial results FQ4 2025 · p. 5 ·
Tight supply and how long it lasts
“Sustained and strong industry demand, along with supply constraints, are contributing to tight market conditions, and we expect these conditions to persist beyond calendar 2026.”
Deck Financial results FQ1 2026 · p. 6 ·
Tight supply and how long it lasts
“We continue to expect supply-demand conditions for both DRAM and NAND to remain tight beyond calendar 2026.”
Deck Financial results FQ2 2026 · p. 17 ·
Tight supply and how long it lasts
“We expect tight conditions to persist beyond calendar 2027 as a result of AI-driven demand across all segments coupled with structural supply constraints.”
Deck Financial results FQ3 2026 · p. 4 ·
NAND supply discipline, then NAND shortage
“Consequently, we anticipate longer periods between industry technology transitions and moderating capital investment over time to align industry supply with demand.”
Deck Financial results FQ4 2024 · p. 14 ·
NAND supply discipline, then NAND shortage
“(capex) versus prior plan and have slowed the pace of technology node transitions. In addition, we are reducing NAND wafer starts by a mid-teens percentage versus prior levels.”
Deck Financial results FQ1 2025 · p. 16 ·
NAND supply discipline, then NAND shortage
“This strategy results in over 10% structural reduction of NAND wafer capacity exiting fiscal 2025 compared to levels exiting fiscal 2024.”
Deck Financial results FQ2 2025 · p. 17 ·
NAND supply discipline, then NAND shortage
“As previously communicated, our efficient node conversions will result in 10% structurally lower NAND wafer capacity ending fiscal 2025 versus the end of fiscal 2024 levels.”
Deck Financial results FQ3 2025 · p. 17 ·
NAND supply discipline, then NAND shortage
“We are now seeing NAND demand significantly in excess of our available supply for the foreseeable future.”
Deck Financial results FQ2 2026 · p. 12 ·
Strategic customer agreements
“We are making progress with customers in our discussions for multiyear contracts with specific commitments.”
Deck Financial results FQ1 2026 · p. 6 ·
Strategic customer agreements
“We are excited to have signed our first five-year SCA.”
Deck Financial results FQ2 2026 · p. 6 ·
Strategic customer agreements
“We are excited to announce that we have now signed 16 strategic customer agreements, or SCAs, which we expect will fundamentally transform our business model.”
Deck Financial results FQ3 2026 · p. 4 ·
New fabs and capacity
“We continue to make progress on the construction for our new fab in Idaho and are working with state and federal agencies on the permitting process for our New York site.”
Deck Financial results FQ4 2024 · p. 6 ·
New fabs and capacity
“Earlier this month, we finalized an agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for an award of up to $6.1 billion under the CHIPS and Science”
Deck Financial results FQ1 2025 · p. 7 ·
New fabs and capacity
“This new Idaho fab will provide meaningful DRAM output starting in fiscal 2027.”
Deck Financial results FQ2 2025 · p. 7 ·
New fabs and capacity
“Two weeks ago, with support from the Trump administration, Micron announced plans to invest approximately $200 billion in the US, which includes $150 billion in manufacturing and $50 billion in R&D over the next 20-plus years.”
Deck Financial results FQ3 2025 · p. 7 ·
New fabs and capacity
“We began design work for our second Idaho manufacturing fab”
Deck Financial results FQ4 2025 · p. 8 ·
New fabs and capacity
“We are pulling in our first Idaho fab timeline, and we now expect first wafer output in mid-calendar 2027, earlier than our prior expectations of second-half calendar 2027. Earlier this year, we announced our plans for a second”
Deck Financial results FQ1 2026 · p. 17 ·
New fabs and capacity
“In DRAM, earlier this week, we announced the successful closing of the acquisition of the Tongluo site from Powerchip Semiconductor, completing the transaction ahead of schedule.”
Deck Financial results FQ2 2026 · p. 18 ·
New fabs and capacity
“ID1 is on track for first wafer output in mid-calendar 2027 and ID2 in late calendar 2028.”
Deck Financial results FQ3 2026 · p. 18 ·
What they keep talking about · 9
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- Guidance
- In seven of eight decks, and increasingly beaten by margins that would once have been a whole year: $33.5bn guided, $41.46bn delivered, with gross margin 3.9 points above a point guide.
- HBM
- The headline of the set, and the most withdrawn: the market estimate was raised from $25bn to over $35bn and then dropped, HBM revenue was given up to 'nearly $2bn' a quarter and then stopped, and the share target was called 'on track' three times and never confirmed.
- Data centre
- In six of eight, the mix that explains the pricing — and the segment whose dollar detail thins as the totals grow.
- Shortage
- From 'tight supply/demand conditions extending beyond 2026' in Dec '25 to 'tight conditions to persist beyond calendar 2027' in Jun '26. The horizon keeps moving out, and it has never carried a number.
- NAND
- Two opposite stories in two years: a mid-teens cut in wafer starts and 'over 10% structural reduction' in FY25, then a new Singapore fab and demand well above supply by Mar '26. The capacity figure was never reported back.
- Contracts
- New in the last three decks and the most consequential thing on them: take-or-pay agreements with price floors — and, on the largest, ceilings — that sold out the whole of calendar 2026 HBM supply, HBM4 included.
- Fabs
- In all eight. Idaho's first fab pulled in to mid-2027 and a second guided for late 2028; Tongluo bought from Powerchip; fiscal 2026 capex raised three times to about $27bn and fiscal 2027 guided higher.
- New
- Jun '26: the intention to increase the capital return after 9 Dec '26 and to return 100% of excess cash over time — the first capital-allocation promise in the set.
- Quiet
- Four measures went: HBM revenue, the HBM market estimate, HBM share against DRAM share, and the front-end cost-reduction outlook. Each was a headline number in the quarter before it went.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8
The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.
- Q4 FY2026 release · 8-K 30 Sep 2026
- Q3 FY2026 release · 8-K 24 Jun 2026
- Q2 FY2026 release · 8-K 18 Mar 2026
- Q1 FY2026 release · 8-K 17 Dec 2025
- Q4 FY2025 release · 8-K 23 Sep 2025
- Q3 FY2025 release · 8-K 25 Jun 2025
- Q2 FY2025 release · 8-K 20 Mar 2025
- Q1 FY2025 release · 8-K 18 Dec 2024
Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.
What analysts asked them
8 calls · Q1 25 – Q4 26The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 | Q3 26 | Q4 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | 27% | 12% | 25% | 40% | 37% | 35% | 20% | 50% |
| Growth & sales | 13% | 31% | 25% | 13% | 11% | 12% | 40% | 22% |
| Pricing & margins | 7% | 56% | 42% | 20% | 21% | 41% | 40% | 33% |
| Guidance & outlook | 7% | 62% | 50% | 27% | 37% | 29% | 20% | 22% |
| Capacity & supply | 30% | 25% | 33% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 20% | 28% |
| Capital & financing | 7% | · | 8% | 7% | 5% | 18% | 10% | 11% |
| Competition | 7% | 6% | 25% | 7% | 16% | · | 10% | 17% |
| Products & technology | 10% | 19% | 25% | 13% | 32% | 29% | 30% | 17% |
| Macro & regulation | · | 6% | 8% | · | · | · | · | 11% |
| Other | 43% | · | 8% | 27% | 32% | 29% | 10% | 11% |
| Questions | 30 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 17 | 10 | 18 |
| How much the CEO talked | 0% | 68% | 56% | 69% | 74% | 71% | 45% | 0% |
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 1 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 2 · worsening
The chief executive took the chair in 2025; in 2026 two Presidents appeared beneath him
Sanjay Mehrotra has been chief executive since May 2017 and chairman since January 2025, with Lynn Dugle as lead independent director rather than an independent chair. On 26 Aug '26 Manish Bhatia was made President and Chief Operating Officer and Scott DeBoer President and Chief Technology and Products Officer, effective immediately, with no succession statement and no word on whether Mehrotra keeps the President title the 10-K gives him. The board has also turned over: the audit and compensation chairs both retired in January 2026.
Tier 2 · live
$185M sold by the chief executive from $228 to $1,192, almost none of it pre-planned
278 sales by 12 insiders, $284.7M, against three purchases worth $7.82M, with 1.46% of the sale value under pre-set plans. Mehrotra sold 212,500 shares for about $185.3M between Nov '25 and Aug '26, including 27 lots on 21 Aug '26 at $959.14-989.59, leaving 264,503 shares. The only buyer was the director T. Mark Liu — executive chairman of TSMC until 2024 — 23,200 shares at about $337 in January.
Tier 2 · live
$45.7B of cash in nine months, and no committed plan for it until December
Nine months of FY26 produced $45.7B of operating cash against $19.6B of capex. Buybacks were $650M at about $260 and none in FQ3, because the CHIPS agreements bar them until 9 Dec '26; the dividend went up 30% to $0.15. Management says it then intends to raise the return and "over time" return 100% of excess cash — no amount, no date. The record it is judged against: FY21-25 operating cash $55.2B against capex $54.0B, and debt doubling in the FY23 trough.
Tier 2 · stable
About $18B of customers' refundable cash is sitting inside the balance sheet
The strategic customer agreements are take-or-pay with price bands — a floor and, on the largest, a ceiling near CQ2 '26 market prices. Remaining performance obligations were about $5B at 28 May '26, immaterial a year before, and about $22B of deposits and commitments is expected, roughly $18B of it cash. It arrives through financing cash flow, so it does not flatter free cash flow, but it sits in net cash until earned or returned. Capex is also stated net of government incentives, $3.0B of which came in over nine months.
Tier 3 · live
Officers' liability limited, a special-meeting proposal refused with 43% for
At the January 2026 meeting a charter amendment eliminating certain officers' personal liability for breaches of the duty of care passed with 10.3% against and took effect on 21 Jan '26, while a shareholder proposal to improve special-meeting rights was rejected with 43.0% in favour. PwC's ratification drew 6.3% against. Say on pay, by contrast, improved sharply: 15.75% against in 2025, 4.85% in 2026, on a chief executive paid $30.9M at 529 times the median employee.
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2025 | 2026 | Share 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mehrotra (Chairman and CEO)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off. | 48.5M | 29.9M | 3.7% |
| Wright (Governance chair)A board seat. | 30.8M | 31.1M | 3.8% |
| Dugle (Lead independent director)A board seat. | 10.4M | 17.4M | 2.1% |
| Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one. | 124.5M | 39.3M | 4.9% |
| Ratify PricewaterhouseCoopersThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long. | 48.7M | 58.1M | 6.3% |
| Limit officers' liabilityShielding executives from lawsuits. A change to the company's rulebook so that officers cannot be sued personally by shareholders for careless (not dishonest) decisions. Shareholders give up some of their power to hold executives to account; a no keeps it. | — | 83.9M | 10.3% |
| Special-meeting proposal (failed)Shareholders' right to act between annual meetings. A lower threshold to call a special meeting, or the right to act by written consent, lets a group of shareholders force a vote without waiting a year. More shareholder power; boards usually oppose it. Here the number is the votes for it. | — | 461.8M | 43.0% for |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| SEC insider data sets and Form 4s, Jul '25-Aug '26 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Mehrotra, chief executive | 212,500 shares | about $185.3M from $227.72 to $1,192.42, leaving 264,503 |
| All insiders | $284.7M | 278 sales by 12 people against three purchases |
| Liu, director | bought $7.8M | 23,200 shares at $336.63-337.50 in Jan '26 — the only purchase |
| Of the sales, pre-planned | 1.5% | almost none under a pre-set 10b5-1 plan |