The Ledger

OMABGrupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte

Industry LatAm concessions Updated 25 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

MXN 229 → MXN 242

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

Mex$229 → Mex$242

Show the math

company value if delivered, less net debt, divided by the shares, in today's pesos. Management guides traffic, growth of a low-to-mid single digit in 2026, and a regulated tariff that falls 0.8% a year in real terms to 2030; commercial revenue per passenger is guided flat. Revenue grows with that, at the 2025 margin. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

0Mex$100Mex$200Mex$300Today (Oct 2026): Mex$229, the market priceMex$229TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): Mex$242 a share if management deliversMex$24212 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): Mex$249 a share if management deliversMex$24924 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): Mex$250 a share if management deliversMex$25036 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Shares at their past paceno new shares since 2021; net debt held at June's level; dividends not countedMex$229Mex$242386M shMex$249386M shMex$250386M sh
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. Base. 2025 aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenue, Ps 13.65B, at a 74.5% adjusted EBITDA margin (Q2 '26 deck). Construction revenue, booked at cost, is left out as the deck does. Today's value is about 10× that EBITDA, and the multiple is held.
  2. Growth. Traffic up 2–5% a year (the CEO's 2026 guide, used for all three years) less the 0.8% a year real cut in the maximum tariff (387 to 375 from 2026 to 2030): 1.2–4.2% a year in constant pesos.
  3. Margin. Held at 2025's 74.5% and the last twelve months' 74.3%. Management gives no margin guide.
  4. Shares. 386.2M Series B and BB shares; no buyback since 2021 and no equity plan. One ADS is eight shares.
  5. Arithmetic. (company value − net debt) ÷ shares, with net debt held at Mex$11.7B (June '26). The Ps 16.6–17.4B development programme to 2030 is not charged, and the dividends are not added back.

Promises vs. what happened

14 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
Four warehouses builtQ3 '24doneHeld
Zihuatanejo loungeQ3 '24opened '24Held
Emissions per passenger −58%, '25Q3 '24−88%Held
Maximise distributionsQ3 '2491% payoutHeld
Culiacán at Ps 544MQ3 '24cost line removedDropped
2021–25 programme, Ps 15.7BQ3 '24execution never reportedDropped
2026–30 programme, Ps 16.6BQ4 '2577% after 2027Open
Tariff path 387 to 375Q4 '2592.2% collectedOpen
Emissions −67% by '30Q3 '24met, margin shrinkingOpen
Women in leadership +30%Q3 '24target rewordedOpen
Monterrey Terminal A, late '25Q3 '24now 4Q '27Missed
Culiacán terminal, '25Q3 '24now 2Q '27Missed
Middle class +97% by 2050Q3 '24cut to +35%Missed
Margin keeps expandingQ3 '2478.4% to 74.3%Missed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26

PassengersPage one since Q3 '24

TrafficFirst seen Q3 '24

RoutesFirst seen Q3 '24

MarginFirst seen Q3 '24

Capex planFirst seen Q3 '24

MonterreyFirst seen Q3 '24

TariffsFirst seen Q3 '24

DividendsFirst seen Q3 '24

ESGFirst seen Q3 '24

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Passengers served (headline)

Q3 '24 · headline page

“26.2 LTM September 2024”

Deck Corporate Presentation November 2024 · p. 4 ·

Passengers served (headline)

Q4 '24 · headline page

“26.5 in 2024”

Deck Corporate Presentation February 2025 · p. 4 ·

Passengers served (headline)

Q1 '25 · headline page

“27.4 LTM April 2025”

Deck Corporate Presentation Jun 2025 · p. 4 ·

Passengers served (headline)

Q2 '25 · headline page

“27.8 LTM June 2025”

Deck Corporate Presentation July 2025 · p. 4 ·

Passengers served (headline)

Q3 '25 · headline page

“28.3 Hilton Garden Inn at Monterrey Airport million passengers served”

Deck Corporate Presentation October 2025 · p. 4 ·

Passengers served (headline)

Q4 '25 · headline page

“28.8 Hilton Garden Inn at Monterrey Airport million passengers served”

Deck Corporate Presentation February 2026 · p. 4 ·

Passengers served (headline)

Q1 '26 · headline page

“28.9 Hilton Garden Inn at Monterrey Airport million passengers served”

Deck Corporate presentation April 2026 · p. 4 ·

Passengers served (headline)

Q2 '26 · headline page

“29.1 Hilton Garden Inn at Monterrey Airport million passengers served”

Deck Corporate presentation July 2026 · p. 4 ·

Traffic performance and its excuses

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“+10.0% 9M24 PAX Impacted by Engine Recall and Otis Hurricane”

Deck Corporate Presentation November 2024 · p. 14 ·

Traffic performance and its excuses

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“+10.0% 2024 PAX Impacted by Engine Recall and Otis Hurricane”

Deck Corporate Presentation February 2025 · p. 14 ·

Traffic performance and its excuses

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Total Terminal Passengers +10.3%”

Deck Corporate Presentation July 2025 · p. 14 ·

Traffic performance and its excuses

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Total Terminal Passengers +8.5%”

Deck Corporate Presentation February 2026 · p. 14 ·

Traffic performance and its excuses

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Total Terminal Passengers +2.1%”

Deck Corporate presentation April 2026 · p. 14 ·

Traffic performance and its excuses

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Total Terminal Passengers +2.4%”

Deck Corporate presentation July 2026 · p. 14 ·

Route development

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Santa Lucia 19 routes opened in 9M24”

Deck Corporate Presentation November 2024 · p. 15 ·

Route development

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Santa Lucía 42 routes opened in 2024 of which 41 continue operating in December 2024”

Deck Corporate Presentation February 2025 · p. 15 ·

Route development

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Dallas Fort Worth 16 routes opened in 4M25”

Deck Corporate Presentation Jun 2025 · p. 15 ·

Route development

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“18 routes opened in 6M25”

Deck Corporate Presentation July 2025 · p. 15 ·

Route development

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“25 routes opened in 9M25”

Deck Corporate Presentation October 2025 · p. 15 ·

Route development

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“37 routes opened in 2025”

Deck Corporate Presentation February 2026 · p. 15 ·

Route development

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“8 routes opened in 4M26”

Deck Corporate presentation April 2026 · p. 15 ·

Route development

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“31 routes opened in 6M26”

Deck Corporate presentation July 2026 · p. 15 ·

Margin expansion

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Margin Expansion of more than 9 p.p. from 2017 – LTM Sep 24”

Deck Corporate Presentation November 2024 · p. 8 ·

Margin expansion

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Margin Expansion of more than 8 p.p. from 2017 – 2024”

Deck Corporate Presentation February 2025 · p. 8 ·

Margin expansion

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Margin Expansion of more than 8 p.p. from 2017 – LTM Jun25”

Deck Corporate Presentation July 2025 · p. 8 ·

Margin expansion

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Margin Expansion of more than 8 p.p. from 2017 – 2025”

Deck Corporate Presentation February 2026 · p. 8 ·

Margin expansion

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Margin Expansion of more than 4 p.p. from 2018 – LTM Mar26”

Deck Corporate presentation April 2026 · p. 8 ·

Margin expansion

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Margin Expansion of more than 4 p.p. from 2018 – LTM Jun26”

Deck Corporate presentation July 2026 · p. 8 ·

Master Development Program

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Committed Investments by Period Master Development Program 2021-2025”

Deck Corporate Presentation November 2024 · p. 26 ·

Master Development Program

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Total Committed Investment* Ps. 16,046mm”

Deck Corporate Presentation October 2025 · p. 26 ·

Master Development Program

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Committed Investments by Type Master Development Program 2026-2030”

Deck Corporate Presentation February 2026 · p. 26 ·

Master Development Program

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Capacity and quality projects 17,420 1,255 2,684 4,249 4,658 4,574 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total Committed”

Deck Corporate presentation July 2026 · p. 26 ·

Monterrey Terminal A expansion

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Expected start of operations Public Areas Late 2025”

Deck Corporate Presentation November 2024 · p. 28 ·

Monterrey Terminal A expansion

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Public Areas Early 2026”

Deck Corporate Presentation February 2025 · p. 28 ·

Monterrey Terminal A expansion

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Public Areas Autumn 26”

Deck Corporate Presentation Jun 2025 · p. 28 ·

Monterrey Terminal A expansion

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Expected start of operations Public Areas 2Q27”

Deck Corporate Presentation October 2025 · p. 28 ·

Monterrey Terminal A expansion

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Start of operations 4Q26 / 4Q27”

Deck Corporate presentation April 2026 · p. 27 ·

Monterrey Terminal A expansion

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Start of operations 4T27 27”

Deck Corporate presentation July 2026 · p. 27 ·

Maximum tariffs

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Visibility on Tariffs”

Deck Corporate Presentation November 2024 · p. 30 ·

Maximum tariffs

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Visibility on Tariffs – 2026-2030”

Deck Corporate Presentation February 2026 · p. 30 ·

Maximum tariffs

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Tariffs 97.8% 99.0% 99.3% 92.1% 89.5% 97.5% 98.3% 97.4% 92.2% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Jun26 387 384 381 378 375 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030”

Deck Corporate presentation July 2026 · p. 29 ·

Shareholder distributions

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Attractive distributions to Shareholders 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,600 1,600 -6,370 2,300 3,750 4,250 1 Dividend yield was calculated with the share price at the end of each year.”

Deck Corporate Presentation November 2024 · p. 24 ·

Shareholder distributions

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“4.5 3.9 4.3 -12.4 4.2 6.2 5.9 6.3 1,600 1,600 1,600 -6,370 2,300 3,750 4,250 4,500 156 75 56”

Deck Corporate Presentation Jun 2025 · p. 24 ·

Shareholder distributions

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Attractive distributions to Shareholders 1,600 -6,370 2,300 3,750 4,250 4,500 4,900 1 Dividend yield was calculated with the share price at the end of each year.”

Deck Corporate presentation April 2026 · p. 24 ·

ESG targets

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Already below our 2025 (93% reduction)”

Deck Corporate Presentation November 2024 · p. 11 ·

ESG targets

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Objectives 2024 emissions are 91% below our 2018 baseline and 72% below our 2030 goal.”

Deck Corporate Presentation July 2025 · p. 11 ·

ESG targets

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Objectives 2025 emissions are 84% below our 2018 baseline and 51% below our 2030 goal.”

Deck Corporate presentation April 2026 · p. 11 ·

ESG targets

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“OMA achieved its 2025 target for reducing Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions per passenger, reaching an 88% reduction compared with the 2018 baseline, well above the Company's 2025 target of 58%.”

Deck Corporate presentation July 2026 · p. 10 ·

What they keep talking about · 11

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Passengers
Page one in all eight decks; the twelve-month label next to the figure is dropped from Q3 '25.
Traffic
The engine recall and Hurricane Otis explained 2024; the note goes once growth returns in 2025, and 2026 is +2.4% at six months.
Routes
New routes counted in every deck; a growth-by-route chart from Q4 '25.
Margin
More than 9 points of expansion since 2017, then 8, then, with the base year moved to 2018, more than 4.
Capex plan
The 2021–25 programme restated in current pesos each quarter, then replaced in Q4 '25 by the 2026–30 one, with no execution figure for the old.
Monterrey
Phase 2's opening moved in four of seven later decks, from late 2025 to 4Q '27, with a larger scope.
Tariffs
The new 2026–30 path from Q4 '25, on 2025 traffic weights and December-2025 pesos, so the step-up is not like for like.
Dividends
The same slide every quarter; the new year's dividend added in Q1.
ESG
Two slides every deck; the reduction against 2018 shrinks from 93% to 84% as emissions rise.
New
Q4 '25: the 2026–30 programme and tariff path, a growth-by-route chart and a new middle-class projection.
Quiet
Culiacán's investment figure after Q4 '25; warehouses under construction after Q1 '25; the 2021–25 programme after Q3 '25.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
Demand & customers12%8%7%·33%18%15%·
Growth & sales35%15%7%30%67%18%38%67%
Pricing & margins12%12%14%·67%6%54%·
Guidance & outlook29%19%7%10%·18%23%100%
Capacity & supply29%15%14%···15%·
Capital & financing12%8%14%20%·6%8%33%
Competition·····6%·33%
Macro & regulation12%15%21%30%·35%31%33%
Other24%54%50%30%·47%8%·
Questions17261410317133
How much the CEO talked0%39%49%42%47%33%0%63%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 5 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 2 · stable

    A 30% holder controls management, half the board and the dividend veto

    VINCI's Series BB shares name the CEO, appoint the CFO, COO and commercial director, and elect three directors; six of the eleven directors are VINCI executives, and most board matters need the BB directors' vote.

  2. Tier 2 · stable

    VINCI is paid a fee on EBITDA and may sell OMA more

    Ps 261M in 2025, 3% of EBITDA as defined. A VINCI builder, Cobra, received advances for the Monterrey expansion; other VINCI services must win an arm's-length public bid.

  3. Tier 2 · stable

    VINCI's controlling shares are pledged to its lenders

    The shares that financed the US$1.17B purchase secure the loans, and OMA issued 49.8M treasury shares so they can be converted and sold on a default.

  4. Tier 3 · stable

    Nobody in management owns a share

    Forms 3 and the 20-F show no holdings; 24 officers were paid Ps 33.9M in all; no equity plan.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Board re-electedA board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.passedpassednot published
DividendThe dividend. Approving the cash the company pays out to shareholders for the year.Ps 4.5BPs 4.9Bnot published
Buyback reserveBuying back shares. Permission for the company to buy its own shares back from the market, which leaves each remaining share a larger slice of the company.Ps 1.5BPs 1.5Bnot published

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Form 4s, Mar–Sep 2026SoldNote
No director or officer$0no Form 4 filed; the Forms 3 report no shares