QXOQXO, Inc.

Industry Building distribution Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$10.51 → $15.56

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$11 → $16

Show the math

Today's multiple of 12× — company value over the $2,129.6M of 2025 adjusted EBITDA management reconciled for the company as it now stands — held, with that EBITDA compounding at 13.4-14.9% a year, the rate that takes it to the "about $4 billion by 2030" of management's own organic path. Company value less $11.5B of net debt and Series C preferred, divided by a share count held where it is. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

Shares	Today	In 12 monthsOct 2027	In 24 monthsOct 2028	In 36 monthsOct 2029
Count held: no new stockheld at 1,425M economic shares, as management says it foresees no near-term equity issuance	$11	$161425M sh	$191425M sh	$201425M sh

Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

The multiple. Company value today — $11 times 1424.9M economic shares, plus $9.1B of debt principal and the $3.0B of 4.75% Series C preferred, less about $0.64B of cash — over the $2,129.6M of 2025 adjusted EBITDA in management's own reconciliation of QXO, pre-acquisition Beacon, Kodiak and TopBuild, which is 12×. A trailing multiple: QXO gives no 2026 figure to strike a forward one on.
The growth. 13.4-14.9% a year, from the one sentence with a date on it: "a clear path to grow organically from almost $2 billion of combined company Adjusted EBITDA in 2025 to about $4 billion by 2030." Measured from the reconciled $2,129.6M that is 13.4%; from "almost $2 billion" it is 14.9%. The $5.5B "with self-funded tuck-ins" is left out: it needs acquisitions this model does not pay for. Nothing before 2030 is guided.
The shares. 1,037.5M common on the Aug '26 cover, plus 42.0M penny warrants, the 219.0M shares Jacobs' 9% preferred converts into at $4.566, 91.6M from the 219.0M warrants on their cashless-exercise terms at today's price, and 34.8M for the mandatory convertible that must convert by May '28: 1424.9M. The Series C converts only at $23.25, so it is debt and its ~129M shares are left out (0M in the model). Held flat from 7 Aug 2026.
The debt. As of the closing: $850M term loan, $3.0B incremental term loan drawn 1 Jul '26, $2.25B of 2032 secured notes, $3.0B of 2031 and 2034 notes released from escrow, and the $3.0B Series C. TopBuild's notes were tendered or redeemed at the closing; its term loan is assumed repaid, as the pro forma does. Cash is $2.77B at 30 Jun plus the closing inflows less ~$6.4B of cash consideration and the pro forma's estimates of TopBuild's debt repaid and its own cash.

Promises vs. what happened

11 claims · 3 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

Promise	Made in	What happened
TopBuild closes in Q3 '26	Apr26	1 Jul '26, day one of the quarter	Held
Regional deals and adjacent verticals	May25	Kodiak and TopBuild; no roofing tuck-in	Held
TopBuild for $17.0B, ~45% cash	Apr26	~312M shares and ~$6.4B cash at the close	Open
Double Beacon's EBITDA in five years	May25	base re-set to $783M, 16% below the one promised on	Open
Beacon margin up >500 bps	May25	8.2% in 2025, ~130 bps lower	Open
Deals paid from free cash	May25	every deal paid in new stock, preferred or debt	Open
Above-market organic growth	May25	no organic rate ever reported	Open
TopBuild accretive from day one	Apr26	first quarter not yet reported	Open
$300M of TopBuild synergies by 2030	Apr26	no progress figure yet	Open
$50B revenue within a decade	Jun25	$18.1B pro forma; due about '35	Open
$7.5B of EBITDA, long term	Apr26	3.5x a pro forma $2.13B base; undated	Open

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

May25Jun25Apr26

$50B revenuePage one since May25

Double BeaconFirst seen May25

PlaybookFirst seen May25

Track recordFirst seen May25

Repair demandFirst seen May25

TechnologyFirst seen May25

OwnershipFirst seen May25

ScalePage one since Apr26

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

$50 billion revenue target

May25 · headline page

“Building a $50 billion revenue company—a compelling path to value creation Building products distribution—immense TAM supported by attractive long-term demand drivers”

Deck QXO Investor Presentation, May 2025 (8-K EX-99.1, slide images read by OCR) · p. 6 (OCR) · 20 May 2025

$50 billion revenue target

Jun25 · headline page

“QXO is targeting $50 billion in annual revenue within the next decade through accretive acquisitions and organic growth.”

Deck QXO Investor Presentation and Script, June 2025 (updated 18 Aug 2025) · p. 5 · 26 Jun 2025

$50 billion revenue target

Apr26 · headline page

“Billion Combined Enterprise Value, Advancing Toward a $50 Billion Revenue Market Leader 1 Combined Company financials represent 2025A, adjusted to reflect the full year contribution of acquisitions completed throughout the year for QXO and TopBuild, as well as results for Kodiak Building Partners.”

Deck QXO to Acquire TopBuild: Investor Presentation and Script, April 2026 · p. 4 · 20 Apr 2026

Doubling legacy Beacon EBITDA

May25 · further in the deck

“Beacon is a smart first move Well-defined plan to at least double legacy Beacon EBITDA organically”

Deck QXO Investor Presentation, May 2025 (8-K EX-99.1, slide images read by OCR) · p. 6 (OCR) · 20 May 2025

Doubling legacy Beacon EBITDA

Jun25 · further in the deck

“Well-defined plan to at least double legacy Beacon EBITDA organically 5”

Deck QXO Investor Presentation and Script, June 2025 (updated 18 Aug 2025) · p. 6 · 26 Jun 2025

Consolidation playbook: buy, improve, rinse and repeat

May25 · further in the deck

“= Generate free cash to replenish acquisition capacity » Rinse, wash, repeat: Execute additional acquisitions and replicate transformation plan”

Deck QXO Investor Presentation, May 2025 (8-K EX-99.1, slide images read by OCR) · p. 7 (OCR) · 20 May 2025

Consolidation playbook: buy, improve, rinse and repeat

Jun25 · further in the deck

“▪Rinse, wash, repeat: Execute additional acquisitions and replicate transformation plan”

Deck QXO Investor Presentation and Script, June 2025 (updated 18 Aug 2025) · p. 7 · 26 Jun 2025

Consolidation playbook: buy, improve, rinse and repeat

Apr26 · further in the deck

“Wash, rinse, repeat: Execute additional acquisitions and replicate transformation plan”

Deck QXO to Acquire TopBuild: Investor Presentation and Script, April 2026 · p. 15 · 20 Apr 2026

Jacobs' track record (United Waste, United Rentals, XPO)

May25 · further in the deck

“= Doubled Norbert Dentressangle’s profit from 2015 to 2018 = Doubled Con-way’s profit from 2015 to 2018 and generated more than $4 billion of net cash in less-than-truckload from 2016 to 2022”

Deck QXO Investor Presentation, May 2025 (8-K EX-99.1, slide images read by OCR) · p. 11 (OCR) · 20 May 2025

Jacobs' track record (United Waste, United Rentals, XPO)

Jun25 · further in the deck

“We’ve done this before: track record of successful transformations”

Deck QXO Investor Presentation and Script, June 2025 (updated 18 Aug 2025) · p. 11 · 26 Jun 2025

Jacobs' track record (United Waste, United Rentals, XPO)

Apr26 · further in the deck

“‒ Time-tested playbook: CEO Brad Jacobs and his teams drove outsized value at United Waste, United Rentals and XPO”

Deck QXO to Acquire TopBuild: Investor Presentation and Script, April 2026 · p. 15 · 20 Apr 2026

Repair and remodel resilience

May25 · further in the deck

“Beacon is a smart first move Attractive demand drivers for the roofing sector: ~80% driven by non-discretionary repair & remodel activity”

Deck QXO Investor Presentation, May 2025 (8-K EX-99.1, slide images read by OCR) · p. 13 (OCR) · 20 May 2025

Repair and remodel resilience

Jun25 · further in the deck

“▪Attractive demand drivers for the roofing sector: ~80% driven by non-discretionary repair & remodel activity”

Deck QXO Investor Presentation and Script, June 2025 (updated 18 Aug 2025) · p. 13 · 26 Jun 2025

Repair and remodel resilience

Apr26 · further in the deck

“‒ R&R (~50%) / New construction (~50%)”

Deck QXO to Acquire TopBuild: Investor Presentation and Script, April 2026 · p. 5 · 20 Apr 2026

Technology as the lever

May25 · further in the deck

“= Significantly expand EBITDA margin = Leverage game-changing technology opportunities”

Deck QXO Investor Presentation, May 2025 (8-K EX-99.1, slide images read by OCR) · p. 7 (OCR) · 20 May 2025

Technology as the lever

Jun25 · further in the deck

“▪Implemented initial transformation efforts in key areas of opportunity, including systematic pricing adjustments, new sales enablement tools, and key procurement practices”

Deck QXO Investor Presentation and Script, June 2025 (updated 18 Aug 2025) · p. 14 · 26 Jun 2025

Technology as the lever

Apr26 · further in the deck

“Meaningful Synergy Opportunity Enabled by Technology”

Deck QXO to Acquire TopBuild: Investor Presentation and Script, April 2026 · p. 10 · 20 Apr 2026

Management alignment and ownership

May25 · further in the deck

“" Today, Jacobs owns approximately 28% of QXO’s equity * Meaningful portion of each senior leader’s net worth is tied to QXO”

Deck QXO Investor Presentation, May 2025 (8-K EX-99.1, slide images read by OCR) · p. 16 (OCR) · 20 May 2025

Management alignment and ownership

Jun25 · further in the deck

“▪The senior management team, including CEO Brad Jacobs, and the board own approximately 36%1of QXO’s equity”

Deck QXO Investor Presentation and Script, June 2025 (updated 18 Aug 2025) · p. 15 · 26 Jun 2025

Management alignment and ownership

Apr26 · further in the deck

“Management Incentives Aligned with Shareholders7”

Deck QXO to Acquire TopBuild: Investor Presentation and Script, April 2026 · p. 14 · 20 Apr 2026

Scale through TopBuild

Apr26 · headline page

“QXO to Become the Second Largest Publicly”

Deck QXO to Acquire TopBuild: Investor Presentation and Script, April 2026 · p. 4 · 20 Apr 2026

What they keep talking about · 10

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

$50B revenue: On the opening slide of all three decks. The April '26 deck measures progress against it in pro forma revenue, ~$18.1B, for a year QXO owned none of its three acquisitions in full.
Double Beacon: The core earnings promise of both 2025 decks. Absent from April '26, which talks only of the combined company; Beacon's own year under QXO came in at $783M, 16% below the base it was promised on.
Playbook: The same "wash, rinse, repeat" slide in all three — buy, fix, generate free cash, buy again. The free-cash step has not happened yet; every deal was paid in new paper.
Track record: A full slide in both 2025 decks, with a ">300x" return for investing beside Jacobs; one bullet in the April '26 appendix.
Repair demand: Roofing sold as ~80% non-discretionary repair and remodel in 2025; after Kodiak and TopBuild the mix is about half new construction.
Technology: One bullet among many in 2025, the title of the synergy slide in April '26. No deck dates a rollout; the July '26 Q&A does — legacy Beacon by end of Q1 '27.
Ownership: Jacobs' ~28% in May '25 became "management and board ~36%" on another basis in June '25, and only a heading in April '26.
Scale: New in April '26: the lead slide is size — over $18B of revenue, over $2B of adjusted EBITDA, ~$50B of enterprise value — not earnings improvement.
New: Apr '26: combined-company revenue and adjusted EBITDA on a full-year basis, and a $7.5B long-term EBITDA goal beside the $50B.
Quiet: Beacon's own profile and the ownership percentage stop after 2025. No deck has ever shown a quarter's results, a leverage ratio or free cash flow.

Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 13

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Q2 2026 release · 8-K 13 Aug 2026
Q1 2026 release · 8-K 12 May 2026
Q4 2025 release · 8-K 15 Jan 2026
Q3 2025 release · 8-K 6 Nov 2025
Q2 2025 release · 8-K 14 Aug 2025
Q1 2025 release · 8-K 8 May 2025
Q4 2024 release · 8-K 4 Mar 2025
Q3 2024 release · 8-K 13 Nov 2024
? release · filed copy
? release · filed copy
? release · filed copy
? release · filed copy
? release · filed copy

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

none archived

No call transcript or briefing write-up is archived for this company.

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 7 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

Tier 1 · worsening
$12.1B of debt and Series C ahead of the common
$9.1B of debt principal and $3.0B of 4.75% Series C at the 1 Jul '26 closing, with Jacobs' own $1.0B 9% preferred senior to all of it. Beacon, Kodiak and TopBuild were paid in new debt, preferred and stock; the company has never reported a free cash flow figure, and H1 '26 operating cash flow was -$146M.
Tier 1 · stable
The founder's firm can fill 40% of the board
Jacobs Private Equity designated every director and rebuilt every committee in 2024; the charter keeps its right to 40% of the board, and its co-investors must vote for its nominees until 2029. Jacobs is chairman and chief executive with 35.8% as converted.
Tier 2 · live
New auditor in 2025, three accounting chiefs in four months of 2026
Marcum dismissed for Deloitte in March '25. The chief accounting officer resigned 15 Mar '26; an interim served to the TopBuild closing, when TopBuild's own CAO became the second interim. An SEC comment letter was answered on 28 May '26.
Tier 2 · stable
Half the board from XPO, GXO and RXO; bonus on what acquisitions add
The lead independent director is XPO's vice chair, a director is XPO's CEO, others sit on GXO's and RXO's boards. The 2025 bonus paid 50% on adjusted EBITDA and 50% on revenue, both of which every deal increases.
Tier 3 · stable
No calls, no results deck
QXO answers investors in company-written Q&As; nobody gets a follow-up. Say on pay drew 14.2% against in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

	2025	2026	Share 2026
Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one.	68.4M	17.1M	2.4%
Colucci (nominating chair)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.	0.9M	7.6M	1.1%
Kushner (left 1 Jul '26)A board seat.	3.1M	6.3M	0.9%
Jacobs (chairman and CEO)A board seat.	2.3M	5.1M	0.7%
Landry (lead independent)A board seat.	1.4M	3.3M	0.5%
Harik (XPO CEO)A board seat.	0.1M	3.1M	0.4%
Ratify DeloitteThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long.	0.1M	1.2M	0.2%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Form 4s, Jul '25-Oct '26	Sold	Note
All insiders	$0	no open-market sale and no open-market purchase on any Form 4 in the window
Brad Jacobs	no sale	his position is the 2024 preferred and warrants, none of it converted or sold