SPCXSpace Exploration Technologies Corp.
Industry Space defense Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months
$147 → $238
What the podcasts say
1 bullish · 4 bearish · 4 speakers · 4 showsWhat investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.
- Bullish
- Bearish
- Bearish
- Bearish
- Bearish
Promises vs. what happened
16 claims · 2 decksEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
Ten of sixteen have held, and Q3 added the two Starship dates. Until Q3 only the financing and pricing statements had resolved, the ones management controls. Then Flight 14 reached orbit and delivered 26 V3 Starlink satellites, inside the H2 '26 window. Orbital compute (2028), the long-term margins and a sustained AI profit are still pending.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt as well as equity, investment grade | PROSPECTUS | $25B of IG notes, 5.855% weighted | Held |
| Cursor at a $60B implied value | ROADSHOW | closed 14 Aug '26, ~391M shares | Held |
| Proceeds into compute, launch, satellites | ROADSHOW | $15.8B of Q2's $18.4B capex on AI | Held |
| Anthropic at $1.25B a month to May '29 | PROSPECTUS | SI infrastructure revenue $7,022M in Q3 | Held |
| More compute contracts like it | PROSPECTUS | $14.1B contracted in Q2; Q3 gives no figure | Held |
| ARPU keeps falling | PROSPECTUS | $69 in Q3, down 17% y/y, up 5% on Q2 | Held |
| Space R&D up on Starship | PROSPECTUS | $3,231M in nine months, 97% of Space revenue | Held |
| Space grows slower than the company | PROSPECTUS | +6% against +161% in Q3 | Held |
| Payload to orbit in H2 '26 | PROSPECTUS | Flight 14 reached orbit in Q3 | Held |
| V3 Starlinks deployed by Starship | ROADSHOW | 26 delivered on Flight 14 | Held |
| Colossus II: +220,000 GB300s, +400 MW | PROSPECTUS | 1.0 to 1.7 GW; GPU count not given | Late |
| Years before AI EBITDA turns positive | PROSPECTUS | +$1.1B in Q2, +$5.0B in Q3 | Open |
| Orbital AI compute from 2028 | PROSPECTUS | Starship now in orbit; 2028 not here | Open |
| ~70% gross margin, ~45% net margin | ROADSHOW | 62% and 30% in Q3; 58% and -2% over nine months | Open |
| Musk locked to Jun '27, others staged | ROADSHOW | no sale by him; 1.3bn free from late Oct | Open |
| AI R&D up as a share of AI revenue | PROSPECTUS | 42% in Q3 from 291% in Q1 - revenue outran it | Missed |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, deck by deckThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
One companyPage one since ROADSHOW
StarshipFirst seen ROADSHOW
StarlinkFirst seen ROADSHOW
Compute resaleFirst seen ROADSHOW
Orbital computeFirst seen ROADSHOW
The TAMFirst seen ROADSHOW
TerafabFirst seen ROADSHOW
Margin goalsFirst seen ROADSHOW
on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
One company across space, connectivity and AI
“BUILDING THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF THE FUTURE SPACE CONNECTIVITY Al”
Deck IPO roadshow presentation (FWP of 2026-06-04, Exhibit D, slide images read by OCR) · p. 34 (OCR) ·
One company across space, connectivity and AI
“Founded in 2002, SpaceX is the only company building the integrated hardware and software infrastructure of the”
Deck 424B4 final prospectus (IPO), June 2026; supersedes the S-1 and S-1/A registration statements · PROSPECTUS SUMMARY ·
Starship V3 and the cost to orbit
“STARSHIP: STEP FUNCTION IMPROVEMENT IN REUSABILITY LAUNCH COST PER KG TO LOW EARTH ORBIT”
Deck IPO roadshow presentation (FWP of 2026-06-04, Exhibit D, slide images read by OCR) · p. 52 (OCR) ·
Starship V3 and the cost to orbit
“designed to be the world’s first fully and rapidly reusable spacecraft, we aim to reduce the cost to reach orbit by 99%”
Deck 424B4 final prospectus (IPO), June 2026; supersedes the S-1 and S-1/A registration statements · PROSPECTUS SUMMARY ·
Starlink subscriber growth, with ARPU allowed to fall
“YoY (%) 96% 50% * i ‘4 ‘ m ores) opportunity, with subscriber mix shift reflected by declining average ARPU”
Deck IPO roadshow presentation (FWP of 2026-06-04, Exhibit D, slide images read by OCR) · p. 81 (OCR) ·
Starlink subscriber growth, with ARPU allowed to fall
“advanced broadband constellation providing internet connectivity to approximately 10.3 million Starlink”
Deck 424B4 final prospectus (IPO), June 2026; supersedes the S-1 and S-1/A registration statements · PROSPECTUS SUMMARY ·
Selling compute to third parties (Anthropic, Cursor)
“HOW WE MONETIZE COMPUTE INFRASTRUCTURE SELLING COMPUTE SELLING INTELLIGENCE:”
Deck IPO roadshow presentation (FWP of 2026-06-04, Exhibit D, slide images read by OCR) · p. 68 (OCR) ·
Selling compute to third parties (Anthropic, Cursor)
“differentiated provider of high-performance compute capacity to both internal and third-party AI workloads. We believe our dual monetization strategy provides multiple pathways to generate returns on invested capital.”
Deck 424B4 final prospectus (IPO), June 2026; supersedes the S-1 and S-1/A registration statements · PROSPECTUS SUMMARY ·
Orbital AI compute powered by the Sun
“ORBITAL Al COMPUTE: READILY AVAILABLE, CHEAPER, AND FASTER”
Deck IPO roadshow presentation (FWP of 2026-06-04, Exhibit D, slide images read by OCR) · p. 63 (OCR) ·
Orbital AI compute powered by the Sun
“We Believe Orbital AI Can Accelerate Time to Power and Reduce Token Costs. The Sun contains approximately”
Deck 424B4 final prospectus (IPO), June 2026; supersedes the S-1 and S-1/A registration statements · PROSPECTUS SUMMARY ·
A $28.5 trillion addressable market, $26.5 trillion of it in AI
“Al UNLOCKS AN EVEN LARGER OPPORTUNITY”
Deck IPO roadshow presentation (FWP of 2026-06-04, Exhibit D, slide images read by OCR) · p. 42 (OCR) ·
A $28.5 trillion addressable market, $26.5 trillion of it in AI
“We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market (“TAM”) in human history. We estimate that our quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion, consisting of $370 billion in Space from space-enabled”
Deck 424B4 final prospectus (IPO), June 2026; supersedes the S-1 and S-1/A registration statements · PROSPECTUS SUMMARY ·
Terafab, own chip manufacturing with Tesla and Intel
“Teratab isa planned semiconductor fabrication plant jointly developed by Tesla, Al, and SpaceX.”
Deck IPO roadshow presentation (FWP of 2026-06-04, Exhibit D, slide images read by OCR) · p. 66 (OCR) ·
Terafab, own chip manufacturing with Tesla and Intel
““Terafab” refers to a chip manufacturing initiative with a long-term goal of producing one terawatt of compute”
Deck 424B4 final prospectus (IPO), June 2026; supersedes the S-1 and S-1/A registration statements · GLOSSARY OF TERMS ·
Long-term margin targets
“Gross Margin (%) 49% ~70%”
Deck IPO roadshow presentation (FWP of 2026-06-04, Exhibit D, slide images read by OCR) · p. 77 (OCR) ·
What they keep talking about · 10
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- One company
- The opening line of both documents, and of the Q2 release's boilerplate. The one theme that has never moved.
- Starship
- Page one of the roadshow as a 99% cost reduction; in the prospectus as a dated commitment to payload delivery in H2 '26. Met in Q3: Flight 14, the first orbital flight, delivered 26 V3 Starlink satellites, and the Q3 release leads with it.
- Compute resale
- In both documents, and the thing that actually happened: AI revenue went $818M, $2,561M, $7,560M in Q1-Q3 '26 on contracts the prospectus said would take years to pay off, and the segment made its first operating profit, $431M, in Q3.
- Starlink
- In both, and the only lane where the documents promise a number going down: subscribers from 10.3M towards 12.0M with ARPU explicitly allowed to fall as the mix shifts abroad. It did - $66 from $85 in Q2 - then ARPU rose to $69 in Q3, still down 17% on a year, with 13.6M consumer subscribers.
- Terafab
- Own chip manufacturing with Tesla and Intel, named 51 times in the prospectus and 13 in the roadshow, and nowhere at all in the Q2 release, the 10-Q or the call. No capital figure, no date and no capacity has been given for it.
- The TAM
- $28.5tn in both, $26.5tn of it AI - a market figure, in a document that elsewhere refuses to guide a quarter.
- Margin goals
- Only in the roadshow (p. 77), which calls the targets goals rather than projections: 33% revenue growth going "Significantly Higher", 49% gross margin going to about 70%, a -26% net margin going to about 45%. The prospectus gives no margin target at all. Q3 '26 was 62% gross and 30% net. These are the numbers the Implied value section holds.
- Orbital compute
- 2028 in both, 100 kW of compute per metric ton - and conditional on Starship reaching orbit, which it first did in Q3 '26. Not mentioned in the Q3 release.
- New
- In the Q2 release: contracted sales ($14.1B), backlog ($47.5B) and a $100B annualised revenue run-rate target for December '26. In Q3: the AI segment renamed Super Intelligence, Starlink subscribers renamed consumer subscribers, and an 800 MHz spectrum purchase for Starlink Mobile due to close in H1 '27.
- Quiet
- Grok and X monthly active users (about 550M, 117M on Grok) and Starlink Mobile monthly unique devices (7.4M) were in both IPO documents at Q1 and appear in none of the Q2 release, 10-Q, transcript or Q3 release. The Q3 release also drops contracted sales, backlog and the $100B run-rate target the Q2 documents gave; Q3 revenue was $14.6B, $58B a year at that pace.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 2
The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.
- Q3 2026 release · 8-K 20 Oct 2026
- Q2 2026 release · filed copy 4 Aug 2026
Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.
What analysts asked them
1 call · Q2 26The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q2 26 |
|---|---|
| Demand & customers | 33% |
| Growth & sales | 33% |
| Pricing & margins | 11% |
| Guidance & outlook | 22% |
| Capacity & supply | 33% |
| Capital & financing | 22% |
| Products & technology | 33% |
| Macro & regulation | 11% |
| Other | 11% |
| Questions | 9 |
| How much the CEO talked | 65% |
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 24 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 1 · stable
One holder elects the board and cannot be removed by anyone else
Class A has one vote, Class B ten; the chief executive holds 82.4% of the total. Class B voting separately elects 51% of the authorised directors - five of eight - and removing him from the board, the chief executive's role or the chairmanship needs a majority of Class B as a class. The company is a controlled company and takes the exemptions from an independent nominating committee and an independent compensation committee. The prospectus also says he does not devote his full time to the business, that there is no key-person insurance, and that the charter does not stop him competing with the company.
Tier 1 · worsening
$13.4bn of equipment debt owed to a director's fund
The AI hardware is financed through sale-and-leasebacks with Valor that fail sale accounting, so the cash is debt: $13.3bn at 30 June against about $4.5bn at the end of 2025, with $513m of H1 interest - 40% of the company's whole interest bill. Valor's founder and chief investment officer is a director, and he sits on the compensation and nominating committee. The same entities were the largest institutional holder at 30 June and are distributing stock in kind to their partners.
Tier 2 · stable
A $54,080 salary, no bonus plan, and 1.3bn shares on a Mars colony
No named executive has an annual bonus programme, so salary is the only cash pay. The chief executive's two awards total 1,302.1m restricted Class B shares and vest on market-capitalisation tranches plus, in every tranche, either "a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants" or orbital data centres delivering 100 terawatts of compute a year. He votes them while they are outstanding; both were recorded improbable with no expense taken. The chief financial officer's options vest per $10bn of adjusted EBITDA on the company's own definition of that measure.
Tier 2 · stable
A two-person audit committee and no Section 404 assessment yet
The audit committee has two of its three members - both independent, Glein the financial expert and chair - with the third promised within a year of listing. Item 4 of the first 10-Q reports no material weakness, but no Section 404 conclusion exists until the 10-K due about February 2027. Against that the earnings-quality read carries three flags, and the sweep returns zero red rows in three years.
Tier 2 · worsening
Sellers only, on dates everyone can read
No insider has bought in the open market since listing. The president sold 342,170 shares on 22 Sep under a plan adopted eleven days after the IPO; a director's fund distributed 42.8m shares in kind on 11 Sep under a plan adopted on IPO day. Then the calendar: 1.3bn Class A shares two trading days after the Q3 results, the rest of that tranche on 8 Dec '26, and 7.8bn more through 12 Jun '27.
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2025 | 2026 | Share 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No annual meeting held since the June '26 listing | — | — | — |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| Forms 4 since listing, Jun-Sep 2026 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Shotwell, president and COO | 342,170 sh | sold 22 Sep '26 at $151.15-154.72, under a plan adopted 23 Jun '26 |
| Valor (Gracias, director) | 42,790,223 sh | distributed in kind to limited partners 11 Sep '26 under a plan adopted on IPO day - supply, not a sale |
| Musk, chief executive | none | no sale since listing; his shares are locked to 12 Jun '27 with no early release |