The Ledger

TNDMTandem Diabetes Care, Inc.

Industry Medtech Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$17.43 → $17.58

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$17 → $18

Show the math

today's enterprise value over the gross profit management guides for 2026, held, with that gross profit compounding at the 5-7% a year printed beside the same guide, then less net debt and divided by a share count growing at the pace of the last half. The multiple is about 2× guided gross profit, which is as low as it is because the enterprise value already carries $147M of net debt: Tandem guides no operating margin, so there is no profit line below the gross one to hold a multiple on. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

0$5$10$15$20Today (Oct 2026): $17, the market price$17TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $18 a share if management delivers$1812 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $18 a share if management delivers$1824 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $19 a share if management delivers$1936 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharesshares +3.7% a year as in the half to Jun '26; the $616M of converts are counted as debt, not shares$17$1873M sh$1876M sh$1978M sh
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The measure. Worldwide sales of $1,065-1,085m and a gross margin of 56-57% for 2026 — the guide set in February and reaffirmed in May and August, both located in the deck. The guide is back-loaded: the first half did $501.8m at 56%, so Q4 has to do $298-318m at nearly 60%.
  2. The rate. 2027, 2028 and 2029 are not guided. The rate used is the "5% - 7%" printed beside management's own 2026 sales guide, the only forward growth rate in the four decks read. The decks' slogan is "sustained double-digit growth" but no double-digit rate is guided for any year, so the guided one is used. No analyst number and no price target is in this model.
  3. What has no number. The "65%+ gross margin, 25%+ operating margin" goal has carried no year since November 2024 — the overview's own words were "Correlating year for targets not specified." — and the Q2 2026 slide dropped even the line tying it to the pace of the pharmacy transition. A target with no date cannot be put in a dated year without inventing the date, so it is not in the model. For scale: at 65% the 36-month figure would be about 1.15 times what the chart shows. Four pipeline promises from the 2024 overview — Sigi, tubeless Mobi, the 7-day set, the renewal rate — have no slide in any 2026 deck.
  4. The converts. $616M of face is counted as debt and left out of the share count, because at conversion prices of $34.56 and $36.99 against $17 they will be repaid in cash, not converted. Net debt of $147M is subtracted in every year, and no row here raises equity to meet it.
  5. Arithmetic. (company value − net debt) ÷ shares. Shares start at 69.6M and compound at the last half's pace, which charges for the $72.7M a year paid in stock.

Promises vs. what happened

14 claims · 4 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
Q1 '26 sales, margin and adjusted EBITDAQ4 '25beat all threeHeld
Q2 '26 sales $255M, international ~$80MQ1 '26met worldwide, missed international at $75MLate
Mobi integration with Abbott Libre 3 PlusQ3 '24no pipeline slide in any 2026 deckDropped
Tubeless Mobi and the Sigi patch pumpQ3 '24dropped from the decks; submitted to FDA per the callsDropped
7-day infusion set, the 65% margin driverQ3 '24not mentioned againDropped
~70% renewal rate within 18 monthsQ3 '24last given in November 2024Dropped
2026 sales $1.065-1.085BQ4 '25reaffirmed twice; Q4 needs $298-318MOpen
2026 gross margin 56-57%Q4 '2556% in H1; Q4 needs ~60%Open
2026 adjusted EBITDA margin 5-6%Q4 '252% in H1; Q4 needs 13-16%Open
US pump shipments 94-95K, +10-11%Q4 '25promoted to the headline metric; openOpen
Pharmacy 15% of US sales, 20% of shipmentsQ4 '2510% in Q2; has to roughly double in H2Open
Direct selling: UK, Switzerland, Austria, then moreQ4 '25launched in Q1; the next wave slipped to 2027Open
$15M lost to distributor destockingQ4 '25held in the guide all yearOpen
65% gross and 25% operating marginQ3 '24no year, since November 2024Open

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24
Q4
'25
Q1
'26
Q2
'26

RecordsPage one since Q4 '25

PayGoNew Q4 '25 · Page one since Q1 '26

InternationalOff page one Q2 '26

ShipmentsNew Q4 '25 · Page one since Q1 '26

Margin goalsFirst seen Q3 '24

MarketOff page one Q1 '26

PipelineFirst seen Q3 '24

CGMOff page one Q2 '26

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Record quarters

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Record sales of $290M”

Deck Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 3 ·

Record quarters

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Record First Quarter Performance”

Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 3 ·

Record quarters

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Record Second Quarter Performance”

Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 3 ·

PayGo pharmacy transition

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Moving to PayGo pharmacy reimbursement structure, from upfront model”

Deck Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 7 ·

PayGo pharmacy transition

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Began PAYGO model in pharmacy”

Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 3 ·

PayGo pharmacy transition

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Advanced PAYGO model in pharmacy”

Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 3 ·

International direct operations

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Q1 2026 – Direct sales begin in UK, Switzerland and Austria”

Deck Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 8 ·

International direct operations

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Launched direct commercial operations in UK, Switzerland and Austria”

Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 3 ·

International direct operations

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Direct sales to average ~15% of international sales (13% in Q2’26 )”

Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 7 ·

Pump shipments as the growth measure

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“In 2026, pump shipments are the best indicator of U.S. market expansion while transitioning to PayGo.”

Deck Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·

Pump shipments as the growth measure

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Pump shipments of >29,000* 55% Gross margin*”

Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 3 ·

Pump shipments as the growth measure

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Pump shipments of 33,000 or 10% YoY”

Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 3 ·

Longer-term margin targets

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Longer-Term Targets 1”

Deck Company Overview (November 6, 2024) · no page (Tavily text) ·

Longer-term margin targets

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Timing to be informed by pace of 2026”

Deck Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 10 ·

Longer-term margin targets

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Timing to be informed by pace of 2026”

Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 9 ·

Longer-term margin targets

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Profitability Goals 65%+ gross margin 25%+ operating margin DRIVING TO SUSTAINED DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH & PROFITABILITY”

Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 9 ·

Large, underpenetrated market and installed base

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Large and underpenetrated worldwide market”

Deck Company Overview (November 6, 2024) · no page (Tavily text) ·

Large, underpenetrated market and installed base

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Installed base of nearly 500,000 54% gross margin 1Represents Non-GAAP financial measures. See the appendix hereto for a reconciliation to the closest comparable GAAP measure .”

Deck Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 3 ·

Pipeline (Sigi, tubeless Mobi, extended-wear set)

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Sigi Platform Redefining patch pump therapy for diabetes”

Deck Company Overview (November 6, 2024) · no page (Tavily text) ·

CGM integration and mobile control

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Sensor integration with Abbott FreeStyle Libre 3 Plus under development”

Deck Company Overview (November 6, 2024) · no page (Tavily text) ·

CGM integration and mobile control

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Initiated launch of Android mobile control for Tandem Mobi”

Deck Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation · p. 3 ·

CGM integration and mobile control

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Tandem Mobi now Android compatible”

Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 3 ·

What they keep talking about · 10

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Records
Every results deck opens on one — "Record sales of $290M", then "Record First Quarter", then "Record Second Quarter". The November 2024 overview carried no quarterly figures at all.
PayGo
Absent in November 2024, when the pricing slide showed DME economics only (60-65% to the distributor, about $8K a patient over four years). The centre of every 2026 deck: "Began", then "Advanced", the PAYGO model.
Shipments
Introduced in February 2026 with the reason attached — "pump shipments are the best indicator of U.S. market expansion while transitioning to PayGo" — and on every headline slide since: >29,000, then 33,000.
International
Direct selling in the UK, Switzerland and Austria led the Q1 '26 highlights, then went back to a modelling slide in Q2 ("~15% of international sales, 13% in Q2'26"). The next wave of European markets has slipped to 2027.
Margin goals
"65%+ gross margin, 25%+ operating margin" unchanged since November 2024 and still with no year. Q4 '25 and Q1 '26 said "Timing to be informed by pace of 2026"; the Q2 '26 slide drops that line too.
Market
The overview's market-size slide — under 40% of US type 1 patients on a pump — is not repeated in any results deck. The installed base is still quoted as of 31 Dec '25: "nearly 500,000".
Pipeline
Four pipeline slides in November 2024: Sigi, tubeless Mobi, a 7-day infusion set, a 70% renewal rate. Not one of the three 2026 results decks has a pipeline slide.
CGM
Abbott integration "under development" in 2024; in 2026 the news is Android control for Mobi. The integrations with Dexcom and Abbott can both be ended on short notice.
New
Q1 '26: free cash flow appears in the deck for the first time, when it was positive. In Q2, at -$38.7M, it is in the appendix only.
Quiet
Nothing has been withdrawn from the KPI set — persistence is 1.0, the only clean score among the companies covered here — but the reconciled non-GAAP operating margin given in the Q4 '25 deck is absent from both 2026 decks, and the pipeline left with it.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
Demand & customers35%17%15%·6%7%··
Growth & sales35%56%35%35%44%43%33%44%
Pricing & margins13%17%20%24%38%36%19%·
Guidance & outlook26%56%15%35%25%36%19%22%
Capacity & supply4%6%·12%12%7%4%·
Capital & financing·11%···14%4%·
Competition13%17%15%29%19%·15%·
Products & technology17%44%5%18%44%43%22%11%
Macro & regulation4%·5%··7%4%·
Other22%11%35%18%19%14%44%44%
Questions231820171614279
How much the CEO talked49%25%45%38%38%30%44%42%

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 1 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · stable

    The chief financial officer reports to the chief executive, and they share a home

    The proxy states that Sheridan and Vosseller "are involved in a personal relationship and share a primary residence", that the board knew before his 2019 appointment, and that "Ms. Vosseller reports directly to Mr. Sheridan". Neither sets the other's pay — the compensation committee does — and the audit committee "implemented certain additional internal controls and procedures" after his promotion, which the proxy does not describe. She has been chief financial officer since June 2018 and spoke every guidance figure in this page's record.

  2. Tier 1 · live

    $456M of cash against $616M of converts struck 2.2x above the price

    $316.3M of 1.50% notes due 2029 at $34.56 and $300M of 0% notes due 2032 at $36.99, carried at $602.6M, against $456.0M of cash and investments. Neither converts at $15.92, so both are cash obligations. Free cash flow is -$26.6M, about -$99M after stock pay; Altman Z is 0.42 and Piotroski 3 of 9. No shelf, no at-the-market programme and no live buyback were found, so an equity raise would be a new decision — and the 2032 notes were already marked at 79% of par four months after issue.

  3. Tier 2 · worsening

    The commercial chief was dismissed without cause four days after the Q1 call

    Mark Novara, chief commercial officer since November 2023 and named in the proxy filed five weeks earlier, was notified on 2026-05-11 and left on 05-18; the Q1 call was 05-07. The 8-K gives no reason, names no successor and adds only that the strategy and 2026 goals are unchanged. He ran the organisation that has to deliver the pharmacy transition. In the same two quarters management twice refused the type 2 share of new pump starts — "we are not gonna talk specifically about the numbers today" — to three different askers.

  4. Tier 2 · stable

    The long-term award is paid on adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA was redefined when it was missed

    Performance shares are earned on relative shareholder return and adjusted EBITDA margin. The FY2025 adjusted EBITDA guide of about +3% became -5% when $75.2M of acquired IPR&D was moved inside the measure, and one-offs were added back in both of the last two years ($20.0M of litigation, $11.2M of restructuring). Stock pay of $72.7M is itself the largest add-back inside the metric, and five years of it came to $427.6M against $144.6M of operating cash flow.

  5. Tier 3 · stable

    A thirteen-year audit chair, and officers' liability just limited

    Christopher Twomey has chaired the audit committee since joining in 2013 and was at Ernst & Young, now the auditor, from 1981 to 1990; 15.2% then 12.8% of the vote went against him, against 0.2-2.0% on every other item either year. At the 2026 meeting holders also approved limiting officers' personal liability to the Delaware maximum, with 16.5% against — the largest protest on any item. His brother-in-law has been a manufacturing engineer at the company since 2019, paid about $169,000 in 2025.

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Christopher Twomey (audit chair)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.8.5M7.0M12.8%
Limit officers' personal liabilityShielding executives from lawsuits. A change to the company's rulebook so that officers cannot be sued personally by shareholders for careless (not dishonest) decisions. Shareholders give up some of their power to hold executives to account; a no keeps it.—9.0M16.5%
Say on pay (advisory)Executive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one.1.6M1.5M2.7%
Amend the 2023 incentive planStock to pay staff and executives. Lets the company create new shares to hand out as pay. Every new share makes each existing share a slightly smaller slice of the company, so a no says shareholders think the dilution is too much.—1.1M2.0%
Ratify Ernst & YoungThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long.0.6M0.5M0.8%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

SEC insider data sets, Jul '25-Jun '26SoldNote
All insiders — sales$4,356two sales, by one person; nothing that looks like a position being exited
All insiders — purchases$251,711two purchases, by two people — the only net insider buying among the companies covered here
The Form 4 sweepnothingread the same 365 days as vesting and tax withholding, with no open-market trade at all