DOCNDigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.
Industry AI datacenter Updated 23 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months
$93.22 → $121
Promises vs. what happened
15 claims · 8 decksEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 '24 and FY24 revenue | Q3 '24 | $204.9M and $781M, both beaten | Held |
| FY25 revenue $870-890M | Q4 '24 | $901M, above the original top end | Held |
| FY25 adjusted FCF margin 16-18% | Q1 '25 | 19% | Held |
| 2026 growth 18-19%, 25% by Q4 | Q4 '25 | 22% then 29%; 25% passed in Q2 | Held |
| Q2 '26 revenue $272-274M | Q1 '26 | $281.2M, margin 40.4% on 37-38% | Held |
| Leverage above 4X, then back below | Q4 '25 | never above; 0.7x, paid down with stock | Held |
| 2026 converts dealt with by end '25 | Q2 '25 | $312M still outstanding; retired at maturity | Late |
| 4M DNE market, 171K served | Q1 '25 | redefined to 21K; the 4M never shown again | Dropped |
| 2027: 18-20% growth, mid-teens FCF | Q1 '25 | growth raised to ~50%, FCF cut | Open |
| FY26 revenue $1,075-1,105M | Q4 '25 | raised twice to $1,170-1,180M | Open |
| 6MW from Q2 '26, 25MW in H2 | Q4 '25 | "on or ahead of schedule"; no MW given | Open |
| FY25 non-GAAP EPS $2.05-2.10 | Q2 '25 | cut to $2.00-2.05 after refinancing | Missed |
| FY26 adjusted FCF margin 15-17% | Q4 '25 | cut to 9-12%, then 11-13% | Missed |
| 2027 FCF margin 20%+, Rule of 50 | Q4 '25 | lowered to ~17-20%; Rule of 50 dropped | Missed |
| FY26 diluted shares 111-112M | Q4 '25 | 118-119M, then 122-123M | Missed |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, deck by deckThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26
Big customersOff page one Q1 '26
AIPage one since Q1 '25
DNEsOff page one Q1 '26
ReleasesPage one since Q2 '26
RetentionOff page one Q2 '25
The nameOff page one Q1 '26
MegawattsOff page one Q1 '26
Rule of 40Page one since Q2 '26
on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
Largest customers ($100K+, then $1M+)
“Drove 37% year-over year revenue growth with 500 customers having $100K+ run-rate, driving 22% of revenue”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q4 2024 · p. 9 ·
Largest customers ($100K+, then $1M+)
“Drove 41% year-over year revenue growth with 500 customers having $100K+ run-rate, driving 23% of revenue”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q1 2025 · p. 5 ·
Largest customers ($100K+, then $1M+)
“Q2 ‘25 14% YoY growth, AI/ML 100% YoY, 4x RPO growth quarter-over-quarter, Scalers+ growing at 35% and at 24% of revenue”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q2 2025 · p. 10 ·
Largest customers ($100K+, then $1M+)
“Customers having more than $1 million annualized run-rate reached $110 million in total ARR, growing 72% YoY”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q3 2025 · p. 9 ·
Largest customers ($100K+, then $1M+)
“$133M $1M Customer ARR, growing 123% YoY”
Deck Q4 2025 Earnings and Investor Update Presentation · p. 7 ·
Largest customers ($100K+, then $1M+)
“T op DNEs continue to be our fastest growing”
Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·
Largest customers ($100K+, then $1M+)
“$1M+ Customer ARR Reached $259M, Growing 214% Y o Y”
Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 5 ·
AI revenue
“NDR to 100%, and grew AI ARR over 160% Yo Y”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q1 2025 · p. 5 ·
AI revenue
“Q2 ‘25 14% YoY growth, AI/ML 100% YoY, 4x RPO growth quarter-over-quarter, Scalers+ growing at 35% and at 24% of revenue”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q2 2025 · p. 10 ·
AI revenue
“Enhanced full-stack inference platform with powerful lineup of GPUs, advanced performance optimizations, serverless inferencing and building block services”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q3 2025 · p. 9 ·
AI revenue
“$120M AI Customer ARR, growing 150% YoY”
Deck Q4 2025 Earnings and Investor Update Presentation · p. 7 ·
AI revenue
“AI Customer ARR 221% YoY Growth 41%”
Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 4 ·
AI revenue
“Inference services grew nearly 800% year over year as AI Natives scale production workloads on our platform”
Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 3 ·
Digital Native Enterprises
“Target 4M Digital Native Enterprises DNE”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q1 2025 · p. 4 ·
Digital Native Enterprises
“Digital Native Enterprise Customers expand to 174k with 500 Scalers+ $100K Annual run rate)”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q2 2025 · p. 10 ·
Digital Native Enterprises
“DigitalOcean is purpose built for AI & Digital Native Enterprises”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q3 2025 · p. 6 ·
Digital Native Enterprises
“21K DNEs are 62% of total ARR, growing 30% YoY”
Deck Q4 2025 Earnings and Investor Update Presentation · p. 7 ·
Digital Native Enterprises
“DNE Customer ARR % of total company ARR 58% 59% 60% 62% 64%”
Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 23 ·
Digital Native Enterprises
“DNE Customer ARR % of total company ARR 59% 60% 62% 64% 67%”
Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 19 ·
Product velocity
“Released more than four times the amount of product features vs Q4‘23”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q4 2024 · p. 9 ·
Product velocity
“Released more than five times the amount of product features vs Q1 2024”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q1 2025 · p. 5 ·
Product velocity
“Strategy 60 new features across Cloud and AI stack”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q2 2025 · p. 10 ·
Product velocity
“Our five-layer platform is becoming a flywheel: 80+ releases since April, and every layer adopted pulls customers into the next”
Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 3 ·
Net dollar retention
“Increased NDR to 99%, grew revenue 13% year-over-year and delivered 18% free cash flow margin Increased product velocity”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q4 2024 · p. 9 ·
Net dollar retention
“Grew revenue 14% year-over-year, increased NDR to 100%, and grew AI ARR over 160% Yo Y”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q1 2025 · p. 5 ·
Net dollar retention
“Net Dollar Retention Rate (“NDR”) 97% 99% 200 bps”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q3 2025 · p. 10 ·
Net dollar retention
“Net Dollar Retention Rate (NDR) 100% 99% 99% 101% 101%”
Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 23 ·
Platform name
“Simplest, scalable Cloud 2018-2024+”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q3 2024 · p. 7 ·
Platform name
“Our mission is to simplify cloud and AI so builders can spend more time creating software that changes the world”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q4 2024 · p. 3 ·
Platform name
“Full stack Cloud + Agentic Cloud”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q2 2025 · p. 8 ·
Platform name
“DigitalOcean Gradient AI Agentic Cloud 2025 DigitalOcean. All rights reserved”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q3 2025 · p. 7 ·
Platform name
“We put the Cloud in neo-cloud Building durable & profitable growth engine”
Deck Q4 2025 Earnings and Investor Update Presentation · p. 5 ·
Platform name
“The DigitalOcean AI-Native Cloud”
Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 8 ·
Platform name
“The AI-Native Cloud Flywheel”
Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 9 ·
Data center capacity
“Increasing investment in data center and GPU capacity to further accelerate growth while maintaining attractive margins”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q3 2025 · p. 9 ·
Data center capacity
“Generated 19% full year 2025 adjusted free cash flow margin ● DC expansion investments on track; Demand exceeds supply”
Deck Q4 2025 Earnings and Investor Update Presentation · p. 24 ·
Data center capacity
“~60MW secured across 4 new sites, coming online across 2027”
Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 14 ·
Data center capacity
“~20MW incremental secured in Q2, expected to come online late 2027 and early 2028”
Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 12 ·
Growth with profitability (Rule of 40, then 50)
“Adjusted EBITDA Margin 43% 44% 100 bps”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q3 2024 · p. 4 ·
Growth with profitability (Rule of 40, then 50)
“Product 2027 1820% Revenue growth and mid-teens aFCF 2027 20% Revenue growth and 40% Weighted”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q1 2025 · p. 4 ·
Growth with profitability (Rule of 40, then 50)
“Maintaining profitability while accelerating growth 14”
Deck Earnings Presentation Q3 2025 · p. 14 ·
Growth with profitability (Rule of 40, then 50)
“On path to weighted rule of 50 in 2027”
Deck Q4 2025 Earnings and Investor Update Presentation · p. 24 ·
Growth with profitability (Rule of 40, then 50)
“Accelerating growth with strong profitability 1Q23”
Deck Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 17 ·
Growth with profitability (Rule of 40, then 50)
“Delivered 40% adjusted EBITDA margins while deploying new capacity on or ahead of schedule and reducing leverage”
Deck Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation · p. 3 ·
What they keep talking about · 10
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- Big customers
- The bar moved. $100K+ run-rate customers through Q2 '25 (500 of them, 24% of revenue), then $1M+ ARR from Q3 '25: $110M, $133M, $183M, $259M. A new series each time the old one stops flattering.
- AI
- A growth rate with no base in 2025 ("AI ARR over 160% YoY"), a dollar figure from Q4 '25 ($120M, $170M, $234M). The definition counts all revenue of any customer that touches an AI product, core cloud included.
- DNEs
- Introduced Q1 '25 as 171K customers spending over $50 a month against a 4M market. Redefined in Q4 '25 as customers spending over $500 — 21.4K — and neither the 4M nor the $140B market was shown again.
- Releases
- "Four times" then "five times" the prior year's features, then a count: 60 new features, then "80+ releases since April". Absent from the Q3 '25 to Q1 '26 headlines.
- Retention
- On the headline slide in Q4 '24 and Q1 '25 while it climbed to 100%. Flat at 99-101% after, and gone from the Q2 '26 deck.
- The name
- "Simplest scalable cloud" to Agentic Cloud (Q2 '25) to Agentic Inference Cloud (Q4 '25) to AI-Native Cloud (Q1 '26). Three names in four quarters for the same company.
- Megawatts
- New in Q3 '25 and now the build: 76MW committed, then ~135MW, then ~155MW. Most of it comes online in 2027 and 2028, which is why it costs cash flow now and earns nothing yet.
- Rule of 40
- A slide of its own in Q1 '25 (weighted Rule of 40), raised to a Rule of 50 for 2027 in Q4 '25 — and the phrase appears in neither 2026 deck, the two quarters in which the free-cash-flow margin was cut.
- New
- Q2 '26: inference services up "nearly 800%" year over year, $1M+ customer ARR at $259M and 214% growth, and 0.7x pro-forma net leverage after the convert buyback.
- Quiet
- ARPU (last given Q2 '25, $111.70), higher-spend customer counts (Q3 '25), capex as a share of revenue (Q3 '25, at 5% — just before it stopped being 5%), and net dollar retention (Q1 '26).
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8
The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.
- Q2 2026 release · 8-K 7 Jul 2026
- Q1 2026 release · 8-K 5 May 2026
- Q4 FY2025 release · 8-K 24 Feb 2026
- Q3 2025 release · 8-K 5 Nov 2025
- Q2 2025 release · 8-K 5 Aug 2025
- Q1 2025 release · 8-K 6 May 2025
- Q4 FY2024 release · 8-K 25 Feb 2025
- Q3 2024 release · 8-K 4 Nov 2024
Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.
What analysts asked them
8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | 29% | 31% | 67% | 32% | 62% | 39% | 56% | 45% |
| Growth & sales | 29% | 31% | 44% | 42% | 50% | 48% | 19% | 55% |
| Pricing & margins | 24% | 23% | · | 16% | 25% | 39% | 44% | 36% |
| Guidance & outlook | 24% | 38% | 44% | 32% | 38% | 35% | 25% | 27% |
| Capacity & supply | 10% | 15% | 22% | 5% | 12% | 57% | 31% | 55% |
| Capital & financing | 10% | 8% | 44% | 16% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 18% |
| Competition | 5% | · | · | · | 25% | 17% | 6% | · |
| Products & technology | 33% | 31% | 56% | 11% | 12% | 43% | 50% | 27% |
| Macro & regulation | · | · | 11% | · | · | · | · | · |
| Other | 38% | 31% | 11% | 11% | · | · | 12% | · |
| Questions | 21 | 13 | 9 | 19 | 8 | 23 | 16 | 11 |
| How much the CEO talked | 57% | 39% | 66% | 35% | 50% | 45% | 84% | 58% |
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 2 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 1 · live
The 13D holder sold $556.8M in May, above today's price
Access Industries held 21.44% at 31 Mar '26. Two Forms 4 record 3,691,806 shares sold on 7, 11 and 13 May at $147.80-$162.51, counted by script over the transaction rows; Amendment No. 7 to the 13D, filed 6 Aug '26, puts the group at 15.86%. It keeps registration rights from a 2020 investors' rights agreement, so the rest can follow without a market in the way. Today's price is $135.92.
Tier 2 · worsening
The largest holder is also a paid counterparty, and its man sets pay and picks directors
An affiliate of AI Droplet Holdings has been paid referral fees since Nov '23 — about $2,735,000 in FY2025 — under a contract to Mar '29 that was amended in Jan '26 to add incentive payments through 2027. The proxy itself says Pueo Keffer is a senior managing director of Access Technology Ventures, an affiliate of that holder. The board calls him independent and seats him on the compensation and the nominating committee, the two that set executive pay and choose directors. He is not on the audit committee, which is where the related-person policy sends these transactions.
Tier 2 · worsening
The share count rose 27.9% in seven months and the guide for it was raised twice
91,947,614 shares at 31 Dec '25, 117,579,550 at 30 Jul '26. An 11.9M-share follow-on at $77.00 repaid the term loan; 12,543,915 shares at $117.54 retired $471.8M of converts. Management's own guide went 111-112M to 118-119M to 122-123M, with 126-127M for Q3 alone. The shelf filed in Mar '26 has been used twice; the $100M buyback authorised in Aug '25 bought nothing in H1 '26.
Tier 2 · stable
Pay runs on the company's own non-GAAP numbers and on nothing GAAP
The 2025 bonus was three quarters revenue and one quarter a company-defined adjusted free cash flow margin whose 18.0% target was also its maximum; the performance shares ran on ARR and the same margin, with ARR defined as Q4 revenue times four. Nothing GAAP appears in either, and the one guided number that moved against holders — the share count — is in neither. Say on pay drew 13.9% against in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026.
Tier 2 · worsening
Three of the people who run the business changed in a year, one with no filing at all
Bratin Saha gave notice as product and technology chief on 20 Nov '25 and was gone on the 26th, three months before the FY2026 guide was set. Vinay Kumar replaced him from Oracle in Jan '26. Lawrence D'Angelo is in the proxy's ownership table at 31 Mar '26 as chief revenue officer and absent from its officer table three weeks later, with nothing filed about it; by Aug '26 the chief executive was introducing Kevin Van Gundy in the role on a call. Only three people are designated executive officers, so the revenue chair can change without an 8-K.
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2025 | 2026 | Share 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Srinivasan, CEO (Class I, 2025 only)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off. | 11.1M withheld | — | 16.1% |
| Adelman, lead independent (Class II, 2026)A board seat. | — | 16.8M withheld | 20.1% |
| Keffer, Access Technology Ventures (Class II, 2026)A board seat. | — | 13.5M withheld | 16.2% |
| Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one. | 9.7M against | 1.9M against | 2.2% in '26, 13.9% in '25 |
| Ratify PricewaterhouseCoopersThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long. | 0.3M against | 62K against | 0.1% |
| Limit officers' liability (2025 charter)Shielding executives from lawsuits. A change to the company's rulebook so that officers cannot be sued personally by shareholders for careless (not dishonest) decisions. Shareholders give up some of their power to hold executives to account; a no keeps it. | 3.0M against | — | 4.3% |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| Forms 4 and SEC insider data sets, Jul '25-Jun '26 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Access Industries (Len Blavatnik) | $556.8M | 3,691,806 shares over three days in May '26, at $147.80-$162.51 |
| Everyone else (six insiders) | $11.9M | the rest of 27 sales; no purchases by anyone, 0.4% pre-planned |
| The chief executive and chief financial officer | not material sellers | together under 0.4% of the company at 31 Mar '26 |