LNCLincoln National Corporation
Industry Life annuity Updated 24 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026
If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months
$39.84 → $40.52
What the podcasts say
1 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 speaker · 1 showWhat investors said about this company on the podcasts we transcribe, newest first. Bullish means the speaker expects the stock to do well, bearish means they expect it to do badly.
- Bullish
Promises vs. what happened
15 claims · 8 decksEvery target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.
| Promise | Made in | What happened | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital ratio 420%+ by '26 | Q4 '24 | 439% in '25, a year early | Held |
| Leverage 25-26.5% by '26 | Q4 '24 | 25.1%, two years early | Held |
| '25 quarterly earnings shape | Q4 '24 | all four quarters inside the range | Held |
| Alternatives return 10% a year | Q3 '24 | 19.7% over eight quarters against 20% | Held |
| Life turns the legacy book round | Q3 '24 | $37M to $146M - on mortality and alternatives | Held |
| Bain money funds growth | Q1 '25 | part still undeployed; never quantified | Late |
| Spark projects done by '25 | Q3 '24 | still winding down, then dropped | Dropped |
| Cash conversion 45-60% by '26 | Q4 '24 | 45% in '25 - on a redefined denominator | Open |
| Segment growth to '26 | Q4 '25 | Retirement cut 2-4% to 0-2%; rest raised | Open |
| Group premiums +3-6%, margin 8-9% | Q4 '25 | 2% in both '26 quarters; open | Open |
| Annuities return 66-70bps | Q4 '25 | 63-64bps, below the range | Open |
| Remittances $1.2-1.3B a year | Q4 '25 | $845M in '25; not reported quarterly | Open |
| Capital return $400-600M+ a year | Q4 '25 | $324M in '25; no buyback yet | Open |
| Preferred redeemable in '27 | Q4 '25 | $500M prefunded, $437M tendered early | Open |
| Life 10-15% of earnings by '26 | Q4 '24 | cut to 8-9% | Missed |
What they’re pitching
the headline page, deck by deckThe headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26
Capital ratioOff page one Q4 '25
LeveragePage one since Q3 '24
Holdco cashPage one since Q4 '25
The streakPage one since Q3 '24
Group marginPage one since Q4 '25
LifeNew Q4 '24 · Page one since Q2 '25
AnnuitiesPage one since Q3 '25
on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.
RBC capital buffer
“RBC ratio remained above 420% as capital position continues to strengthen.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Third Quarter 2024 · p. 3 ·
RBC capital buffer
“Ended 2024 with estimated RBC ratio of >430% as capital position continued to strengthen.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Fourth Quarter 2024 · p. 9 ·
RBC capital buffer
“Estimated RBC ratio4 >420%, consistent with goal to hold capital buffer above 400% target.”
Deck Earnings Supplement First Quarter 2025 · p. 5 ·
RBC capital buffer
“Capital strengthened further, enhanced by close of Bain Capital transaction”
Deck Earnings Supplement Second Quarter 2025 · p. 4 ·
RBC capital buffer
“Estimated RBC ratio3 >420%, well in excess of 20pp capital buffer above 400% target.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Third Quarter 2025 · p. 4 ·
RBC capital buffer
“14 407% 433% 2023 2024 2025E (ex Bain)”
Deck Earnings Supplement Fourth Quarter 2025 · p. 14 ·
Leverage ratio down to target
“Leverage ratio continued to decline, driven by organic equity growth.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Third Quarter 2024 · p. 3 ·
Leverage ratio down to target
“Leverage ratio5 declined 240 bps YOY to 27.8%, driven by continued organic equity growth.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Fourth Quarter 2024 · p. 9 ·
Leverage ratio down to target
“Leverage ratio5 improved 260bps YoY to 27.5%, driven primarily by organic equity growth.”
Deck Earnings Supplement First Quarter 2025 · p. 5 ·
Leverage ratio down to target
“Leverage ratio3 improved 330bps YoY to 25.6%, driven primarily by equity growth.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Second Quarter 2025 · p. 4 ·
Leverage ratio down to target
“Leverage ratio4 improved 320bps YoY to 25.2%, driven primarily by equity growth.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Third Quarter 2025 · p. 4 ·
Leverage ratio down to target
“Leverage ratio2 improved 270bps YoY to 25.1%.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Fourth Quarter 2025 · p. 4 ·
Leverage ratio down to target
“Leverage ratio2 improved 250bps YoY to 25.0%.”
Deck Earnings Supplement First Quarter 2026 · p. 3 ·
Leverage ratio down to target
“Leverage ratio3 remained at ~25%.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Second Quarter 2026 · p. 3 ·
Holding-company liquidity
“Holding Company available liquidity increased to $655M at year-end, net of prefunding amounts.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Fourth Quarter 2025 · p. 4 ·
Holding-company liquidity
“Holding Company available liquidity increased to $805M, net of prefunding amounts, up $150M from YE 2025.”
Deck Earnings Supplement First Quarter 2026 · p. 3 ·
Holding-company liquidity
“Holding Company available liquidity increased to ~$900M, net of prefunding, up ~$250M since YE 2025.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Second Quarter 2026 · p. 3 ·
Consecutive earnings growth
“Highest earnings quarter in over two years; achieving targeted outcomes through strong execution”
Deck Earnings Supplement Third Quarter 2024 · p. 3 ·
Consecutive earnings growth
“Strong earnings growth, driven by strategic initiatives to enhance profitability”
Deck Earnings Supplement Fourth Quarter 2024 · p. 9 ·
Consecutive earnings growth
“Earnings growth as strategy to expand profitability delivered strong results”
Deck Earnings Supplement First Quarter 2025 · p. 5 ·
Consecutive earnings growth
“Adjusted operating income1 increased 32% YoY , the 4th consecutive quarter of YoY growth.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Second Quarter 2025 · p. 4 ·
Consecutive earnings growth
“Broadening momentum resulted in fifth consecutive quarter of YoY earnings growth”
Deck Earnings Supplement Third Quarter 2025 · p. 4 ·
Consecutive earnings growth
“Adjusted operating income1 up 31% YoY, with broad-based earnings growth”
Deck Earnings Supplement Fourth Quarter 2025 · p. 4 ·
Consecutive earnings growth
“Seventh consecutive quarter of YoY adjusted operating income1 growth, up 16% in 1Q”
Deck Earnings Supplement First Quarter 2026 · p. 3 ·
Consecutive earnings growth
“Eighth consecutive quarter of YoY adjusted operating income1 growth, up 3% for 2Q”
Deck Earnings Supplement Second Quarter 2026 · p. 3 ·
Group Protection margin
“Group Protection earnings more than doubled YOY and Annuities earnings grew 15%2.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Third Quarter 2024 · p. 3 ·
Group Protection margin
“Group Protection earnings more than doubled YOY to a new 4Q record; margin was 8.3%, up 430 bps YOY.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Fourth Quarter 2024 · p. 9 ·
Group Protection margin
“Group Protection earnings were up 26% YoY , and margin was 7.4%, expanding 120 bps.”
Deck Earnings Supplement First Quarter 2025 · p. 5 ·
Group Protection margin
“Group Protection record earnings up 33% YoY , and record margin was 12.5%, up 250 bps.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Second Quarter 2025 · p. 4 ·
Group Protection margin
“Group Protection earnings up 2% YoY, driven by strong premium growth.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Fourth Quarter 2025 · p. 4 ·
Group Protection margin
“Group Protection earnings up 11% YoY, driven by favorable life experience.”
Deck Earnings Supplement First Quarter 2026 · p. 3 ·
Group Protection margin
“Group Protection delivered earnings of $147M and a margin of 10.4%, reflecting continued momentum in the business.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Second Quarter 2026 · p. 3 ·
Life Insurance turnaround
“Q4 operating loss was due to unfavorable mortality, primarily driven by higher-than-expected severity.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Fourth Quarter 2024 · p. 14 ·
Life Insurance turnaround
“Life Insurance earnings of $32M with in-line alternative inv. income and favorable mortality.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Second Quarter 2025 · p. 4 ·
Life Insurance turnaround
“Life Insurance earnings of $54M2 driven by stable mortality and higher investment income.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Third Quarter 2025 · p. 4 ·
Life Insurance turnaround
“Life Insurance earnings of $77M, up $92M YoY, driven by improved mortality and strong alternative investment income.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Fourth Quarter 2025 · p. 4 ·
Life Insurance turnaround
“Life Insurance earnings of $41M, up $57M YoY, driven by strong alternative investment income.”
Deck Earnings Supplement First Quarter 2026 · p. 3 ·
Life Insurance turnaround
“Life Insurance earnings of $57M, up $25M YoY, driven by favorable mortality, partially offset by lower alternative investment income.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Second Quarter 2026 · p. 3 ·
Spread-based annuities and retention
“Annuities sales increased nearly 25% YOY, with spread-based products representing two-thirds of total”
Deck Earnings Supplement Third Quarter 2024 · p. 3 ·
Spread-based annuities and retention
“Sales increased 33% YoY , with spread-based products comprising ~60% of total sales.”
Deck Earnings Supplement First Quarter 2025 · p. 7 ·
Spread-based annuities and retention
“Sales increased 5% YoY , with spread-based products comprising 66% of total sales.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Second Quarter 2025 · p. 6 ·
Spread-based annuities and retention
“Continued to scale FABN program; moved to full retention of fixed annuity business.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Third Quarter 2025 · p. 4 ·
Spread-based annuities and retention
“Annuities total sales of $4.9B, up 33% YoY, with 100% of fixed annuity sales now retained.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Fourth Quarter 2025 · p. 4 ·
Spread-based annuities and retention
“Annuities total sales of $3.9B, up 4% YoY, with spread-based products comprising 64% of total sales.”
Deck Earnings Supplement First Quarter 2026 · p. 3 ·
Spread-based annuities and retention
“Annuities sales of $3.5B reflected disciplined sales execution, with spread-based products comprising 63% of total sales.”
Deck Earnings Supplement Second Quarter 2026 · p. 3 ·
What they keep talking about · 9
The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.
- Capital ratio
- On the headline slide of every deck from Q3 '24 to Q3 '25, always ">420%". In Q4 '25 it drops to the targets slide, and in Q1 and Q2 '26 it is not in the deck at all.
- Leverage
- The one capital measure on the headline slide of all eight: 27.8%, then 27.5, 25.6, 25.2, 25.1, 25.0, and "remained at ~25%". The aim changes from cutting it to holding it.
- Holdco cash
- New in Q4 '25 and straight onto the headline slide, taking the line the capital ratio had held: $655M, $805M, then ~$900M, each time "net of prefunding amounts".
- The streak
- Counted out loud from Q2 '25 - fourth, fifth, seventh, eighth consecutive quarter of growth - and the rate falls with it: +32%, +31%, +16%, then +3% in Q2 '26.
- Group margin
- The growth engine of '24, earnings more than doubling and the margin up 430bp. By Q4 '25 up 2%, and in Q2 '26 earnings are $26M lower than a year before.
- Life
- Off the headline slide while it lost money, on it from Q2 '25 once it made some. Every quarter's explanation is mortality or alternatives income, not an underwriting margin.
- Annuities
- Sales and the spread-based share, quarter after quarter, peaking at $4.9B in Q4 '25. The $3.5B quarter is described as "disciplined sales execution".
- New
- Q4 '25: a two-year medium-term range for every segment's driver and return - the numbers this page's growth is built from - plus remittances, capital return and the preferred redemption.
- Quiet
- The capital ratio, the free-cash-flow conversion ratio, the scorecard tile slide, the Spark expense chart and Life's net death benefits all stopped. Five of nine measures; persistence 0.44.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 8
The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.
- Q2 2026 release · 8-K 30 Jul 2026
- Q1 2026 release · 8-K 7 May 2026
- Q4 2025 release · 8-K 12 Feb 2026
- Q3 2025 release · 8-K 30 Oct 2025
- Q2 2025 release · 8-K 31 Jul 2025
- Q1 2025 release · 8-K 8 May 2025
- Q4 2024 release · 8-K 6 Feb 2025
- Q3 2024 release · 8-K 31 Oct 2024
Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.
What analysts asked them
7 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.
Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.
| Share of questions about… | Q3 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand & customers | 11% | · | 12% | · | · | · | 15% |
| Growth & sales | 22% | 17% | 38% | 21% | · | 20% | 8% |
| Pricing & margins | · | 8% | 25% | 14% | 15% | 10% | · |
| Guidance & outlook | 11% | 17% | 50% | 29% | 23% | 20% | 8% |
| Capacity & supply | · | 8% | · | 7% | · | · | 8% |
| Capital & financing | 22% | 25% | 38% | 14% | 31% | 20% | 23% |
| Competition | 22% | 8% | 12% | · | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Products & technology | 11% | 8% | 38% | 7% | · | · | 8% |
| Macro & regulation | · | 17% | · | 7% | · | 10% | · |
| Other | 44% | 42% | · | 36% | 54% | 30% | 46% |
| Questions | 9 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 13 |
| How much the CEO talked | 36% | 26% | 39% | 27% | 31% | 39% | 28% |
Who’s in charge, who’s selling
read from the filings · 2 Oct 2026Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.
Tier 1 · live
The number that pays the bonus is not the number given to investors
2025 earnings were $1,177m on GAAP, $1,537m on the operating measure, and $8.72 a share on the measure the annual incentive is scored on - 45% of it - which the proxy's Exhibit 2 builds from operating income plus a one-directional list of reductions. That version paid out at 154.1% of target against $8.26 reported. The capital goal does the same thing: 460% including undeployed Bain proceeds, certified at 175% of target, against the 439% management gave investors and said excluded them.
Tier 2 · worsening
Pay nearly doubled; dissent on pay went from 6% to 29%
The chief executive's total compensation was $27,991,242 for 2025 against $15,903,302 for 2024, $20.3m of it stock, including a separate "performance-oriented" award of $3.60m of units and $4.87m of performance shares on top of the regular $11.84m long-term grant. Pay ratio 277 to 1. At the next meeting 41,153,657 votes - 28.8% of those cast - went against the pay resolution, from 6.0%; in 2025 30.6% had already gone against an amendment to the plan itself.
Tier 2 · stable
The chief executive chairs the board, and the lead independent director is 82
An independent director chaired this board from 2007 to 2022; the chief executive has since May 2023. The designated counterweight, William Cunningham, is 82 and has sat here since 2006. Four of the ten directors are over 70 - one is 83 and has served since 1985, another 75 since 1998 - and the nine non-executives average about fourteen years. Owners asked for an independent chair twice and were refused twice: 38.4% for in 2025, 28.6% in 2026.
Tier 2 · live
The anchor shareholder's contract sits across the only buyback
Bain Capital bought 18,759,497 new shares at $44.00 in June '25 - a 25% premium to the then 30-day average - for $825m, with a board observer seat convertible into a director from June '26, approval rights, and $550m of the money borrowed from SMBC against the shares themselves. Section 6.2 makes the company offer Bain its excess before any repurchase takes Bain over 10%; on 2026-08-10 Bain accepted in advance but only at or above its own $44.00 cost. The stock was $41.20 at 2026-09-28.
Tier 2 · worsening
The chief financial officer left with the whole 2026 outlook open
Christopher Neczypor gave notice on 2026-08-06 for a job outside the industry; the chief accounting officer was made interim the same day, on a $550,000 salary with a $1.0m retention grant, while a search runs. Six weeks earlier the head of Retail Life and Annuity Solutions retired. Neczypor set four of the five multi-year targets this research scores and the entire 2026 outlook, and no call in the archive was held after he went - so nobody has been asked on the record whether it survives him.
Where shareholders voted no
At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.
| 2025 | 2026 | Share 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advisory vote on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one. | 6.9M | 41.2M | 28.8% |
| Shareholder proposal for an independent chair (against the proposal)Split the chair and CEO jobs. A proposal that the board be chaired by an independent director, not the CEO, so the person who runs the company does not also run the board that supervises them. | 71.8M | 102.2M | 71.4% |
| Amendment to the 2020 incentive planStock to pay staff and executives. Lets the company create new shares to hand out as pay. Every new share makes each existing share a slightly smaller slice of the company, so a no says shareholders think the dilution is too much. | 35.7M | — | 30.6% in '25 |
| Re-elect Cooper (Chairman and CEO)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off. | 8.4M | 3.5M | 2.5% |
| Re-elect Lachman (director since 1985)A board seat. | 7.4M | 7.5M | 5.3% |
| Ratify Ernst & YoungThe auditor. Keeping the outside accounting firm that checks the company's books. This almost always passes; a sizeable no means shareholders doubt the audit or think the firm has been in place too long. | 3.5M | 3.4M | 2.0% |
Insiders who sold the most stock
Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.
| SEC insider data sets, Jul '25-Jun '26 | Sold | Note |
|---|---|---|
| All insiders | $3.9M | 9 sales by 5 people, and not one of them pre-planned |
| Against that | $94,123 | 2 open-market purchases by 2 people - rare among the companies covered here |
| The audit chair | 15,006 pref sh | Gary Kelly sold the family trust's whole Series D holding at $26.50 two days into the company's $26.30 bid for it, and did not tender |