The Ledger

SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.

Industry Electronics mfg Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share by the end of 2028

$32.94 → $51.58

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$33 → $33

One guided year on: +23% a year. 2027 is the year management has guided, and it is still running 12 months from the price date, so the 12-month bar, $32.94, stays at or near today's price: the model counts no growth until a guided year is over and only the share count moves. Carried one year past it on management's own figures, the same ones the 24- and 36-month bars use, a share works out to $51.58 at the end of 2028, 26 months from the price date. Climbing there at an even pace from today's $32.94 is +23% a year, $40.43 in 12 months, and that is the figure the Companies page lists.

Show the math

today's multiple of 4× on the gross profit the FY27 guide implies ($65-72B of revenue at the 10.4-10.8% gross margin guided for Q1 FY27), held flat, with revenue compounding at the 60% a year the chief executive gave for "the next few years" in Feb '25. Company value less net debt of $1.2B, divided by 791.3M shares (the mandatory convertible preferred included) growing as they did in the half to Jan '26. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle. Up to the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the company's value is today's and only the share count moves, so the figure is held at today's price rather than shown falling with the dilution.

0$20$40$60$80$100Today (Oct 2026): $33, the market price$33TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $33 a share if management delivers; held at the earlier level, see the note$3312 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $48 a share if management delivers$4824 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $76 a share if management delivers$7636 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharesthe count grows about 1.6% a year as in the half to Jan '26, from stock pay; the June '26 offerings are already in today's count$33$33807M sh · held$48820M sh$76833M sh
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The base. The FY27 guide of $65-72B of revenue, 66-84% above FY26's $39.1B, given with "$60B+ in back orders". At the 10.4-10.8% gross margin the CFO guided for Q1 FY27 that sets the multiple at 4×, after which the base cancels out of the later years.
  2. The growth. FY28-30 are not guided. The only multi-year number on record is the chief executive's, on the Q2 FY25 call: growth "every year should be more than 60%" for the next few years. Taken as a point and carried through FY30. FY25 grew 47%, FY26 78%.
  3. The margin. Held at the Q1 FY27 guide. The preliminary Q1 FY27 figure, 12.0-12.5%, is an estimate of the quarter, not a new guide. Q4 FY26's 17.6% was put down to deferred contracts, lower tariffs and lower inventory reserves; FY26 as a whole was 10.9%. Management says DCBBS and enterprise sales lift margins but gives no number.
  4. The shares. 791.3M today: 657M common plus about 134M for the $4.2B of preferred that must convert by June 2029, at today's price. Left out: 74M conversion shares of the 2028-30 convertible notes, whose conversion prices of $55-83 are far above today's price; they sit inside debt instead.
  5. The debt. $8.7B of bank borrowings and convertible notes less $7.5B of cash at Jun '26, after the June offerings raised $5.6B for working capital. Operating cash flow was -$6.8B in FY26 as inventory built.

Promises vs. what happened

16 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
Q4 FY24 revenue $5.1-5.5BQ3 '24$5,308MHeld
5,000 racks a month by Jun '24Q3 '24capacity metHeld
FY26 revenue $33B+Q4 '25$39.1BHeld
6,000 racks, 3,000 DLC, by Jun '26Q1 '26capacity metHeld
Q4 FY26 revenue $11.0-12.5BQ3 '26$11,120MHeld
Q1 FY27 revenue $14.5-15.5BQ4 '26$18.5-19.5B, preliminaryHeld
Path to $50B+ revenueQ4 '24slide droppedDropped
DLC in 25-30% of new data centresQ4 '24never reported, droppedDropped
FY27 revenue $65-72BQ4 '26not restated after Q1Open
Q4 FY24 EPS $7.62-8.42Q3 '24$6.25, 18% underMissed
Q1 FY25 revenue $6-7BQ4 '24$5.9-6.0BMissed
FY25 revenue $26-30BQ4 '24$22.0B after two cutsMissed
250kW and 500kW racks 'soon'Q3 '25240kW in FY27; 500kW still 'soon'Missed
Q1 FY26 revenue $6-7BQ4 '25$5,018MMissed
FY26 revenue $40B+ (raised)Q2 '26$39.1BMissed
Q3 FY26 revenue $12.3B+Q2 '26$10,243MMissed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24
Q4
'24
Q3
'25
Q4
'25
Q1
'26
Q2
'26
Q3
'26
Q4
'26

Time to marketPage one since Q3 '24

OutlookPage one since Q4 '26

Liquid coolingOff page one Q1 '26

DCBBSPage one since Q4 '25

CapacityFirst seen Q3 '24

FactoriesOff page one Q4 '26

Order bookPage one since Q4 '26

GreenFirst seen Q3 '24

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Time-to-market on new GPU generations

Q3 '24 · headline page

“First to market development on NVIDIA GH200 (Grace Hopper) and GB200 (Blackwell) solutions”

Deck Fiscal Q3 2024 Results · p. 3 ·

Time-to-market on new GPU generations

Q4 '24 · headline page

“First to market with 8U AI NVIDIA H100 Liquid Cooled Clusters”

Deck Fiscal Q4 2024 Results · p. 3 ·

Time-to-market on new GPU generations

Q3 '25 · headline page

“First to ship latest gen AI products including Supermicro NVIDIA B200/GB200 in volume, TTM leadership”

Deck Fiscal Q3 2025 Results · p. 3 ·

Time-to-market on new GPU generations

Q4 '25 · headline page

“First to ship latest gen AI products including Supermicro NVIDIA B300/GB300; continued TTM leadership”

Deck Fiscal Q4 2025 Results · p. 3 ·

Time-to-market on new GPU generations

Q1 '26 · headline page

“TTM, among the first to ship next gen AI products including AMD MI355”

Deck Fiscal Q1 2026 Results · p. 3 ·

Time-to-market on new GPU generations

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Delivering high volume NVIDIA GB300 NVL72, HGX B300, RTX6000Pro, and AMD MI350/355 worldwide with TTM”

Deck FQ2 2026 Results · p. 3 ·

Time-to-market on new GPU generations

Q3 '26 · headline page

“Preparing for next generation Nvidia, AMD GPU/CPU, Intel, and ARM AGI CPU, and others”

Deck FQ3 2026 Results · p. 3 ·

Time-to-market on new GPU generations

Q4 '26 · headline page

“Delivering high volume NVIDIA VERA CPU / VERA Rubin, GB300 NVL72, HGX B300, RTX6000Pro, and AMD MI350/355 worldwide with the best Time to Market”

Deck FQ4 2026 Results · p. 3 ·

Revenue and outlook on the CEO slide

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Q4 FY24 revenue guidance: $5.1B to $5.5B, 133% to 152% YoY growth”

Deck Fiscal Q3 2024 Results · p. 3 ·

Revenue and outlook on the CEO slide

Q4 '24 · headline page

“FY25 revenue guidance: $26.0B to $30.0B, 74% to 101% YoY growth”

Deck Fiscal Q4 2024 Results · p. 3 ·

Revenue and outlook on the CEO slide

Q4 '26 · headline page

“Scaling nearly doubled revenue from $22B in FY25 to $39B in FY26 and large-scale billion-dollar customers from four in FY25 to nine in FY26 and $60B+ in back orders”

Deck FQ4 2026 Results · p. 3 ·

Direct liquid cooling

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Early seeding on X14 and H14 systems based on Intel Xeon 6 and AMD Turin • Rack-scale DLC-readiness as next-gen AI-solutions require liquid cooling – shipping 1000+ racks this quarter”

Deck Fiscal Q3 2024 Results · p. 3 ·

Direct liquid cooling

Q4 '24 · headline page

“Liquid Cooling Solutions: target 25~30% of the global new D/C deployments to use DLC solutions in next 12 months”

Deck Fiscal Q4 2024 Results · p. 3 ·

Direct liquid cooling

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Liquid Cooling Solutions: targeting ~30%+ of the global new D/C deployments to use DLC solutions in next 12 months”

Deck Fiscal Q3 2025 Results · p. 3 ·

Direct liquid cooling

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Introduced DLC-2, lowering 40% power and water consumption, significantly lower noise to about 50dB, and 20% lower TCO”

Deck Fiscal Q4 2025 Results · p. 3 ·

Direct liquid cooling

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“, Coreweave, and more 6,000 Racks/capacity per month by year end FY26 3,000 DLC racks/capacity per month by year end FY26 150kW Racks shipping in volume (250/ 500kW soon)”

Deck Fiscal Q1 2026 Results · p. 5 ·

Direct liquid cooling

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“Solutions to fully outfit liquid cooled AI factories and data centers”

Deck FQ2 2026 Results · p. 7 ·

DCBBS (Data Center Building Block Solutions)

Q4 '24 · headline page

“DCBBS (Data Center Building Block Systems) architecture to speed up customers’ AI solutions to achieve TTD, TTO and TCO”

Deck Fiscal Q4 2024 Results · p. 3 ·

DCBBS (Data Center Building Block Solutions)

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“DATACENTER BUILDING BLOCKS Supermicro 4.0 2025 & BEYOND”

Deck Fiscal Q3 2025 Results · p. 5 ·

DCBBS (Data Center Building Block Solutions)

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Announced an expanded Data Center Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) for accelerated AI data center buildouts”

Deck Fiscal Q4 2025 Results · p. 3 ·

DCBBS (Data Center Building Block Solutions)

Q1 '26 · headline page

“DCBBS provides required components to fully outfit liquid cooled AI factories and data centers”

Deck Fiscal Q1 2026 Results · p. 6 ·

DCBBS (Data Center Building Block Solutions)

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Starting to ship production DCBBS SKUs in volume for key customer engagements”

Deck FQ2 2026 Results · p. 3 ·

DCBBS (Data Center Building Block Solutions)

Q3 '26 · headline page

“Continuing the expansion of DCBBS product offerings, including racks, DLC, L2A, chilled doors, power shelves, BBU, switches, and SuperDCM and Rack-Scale management software tools.”

Deck FQ3 2026 Results · p. 3 ·

DCBBS (Data Center Building Block Solutions)

Q4 '26 · headline page

“Adding a new DCBBS campus in silicon valley to support continued product expansion in addition to racks, DLC, L2A, chilled doors, power shelves, BBU, switches, and SuperDCM and Rack-Scale management software tools”

Deck FQ4 2026 Results · p. 3 ·

Rack and power capacity

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“Server software management solutions drive optimization and higher infrastructure security 5,000 Racks capacity per month expected by the end of FY 24 of which….”

Deck Fiscal Q3 2024 Results · p. 6 ·

Rack and power capacity

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Powering the most powerful AI training/Inference cluster in the world 5,000 Racks per month production NOW 2,000+ DLC Racks per month - Critical 100KW (150, 200KW) Racks ready to deploy”

Deck Fiscal Q4 2024 Results · p. 6 ·

Rack and power capacity

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“20MW Facilities today (30MW online soon)”

Deck Fiscal Q3 2025 Results · p. 7 ·

Rack and power capacity

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Powering the most powerful AI training/Inference clusters in the world – xAI, Coreweave and more 5,000 Racks per month production NOW 2,000 DLC Racks per month 150kW (250, 500kW) racks ship in volume 20MW facilities today (30MW 3mo later)”

Deck Fiscal Q4 2025 Results · p. 5 ·

Rack and power capacity

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“52MW facilities worldwide”

Deck Fiscal Q1 2026 Results · p. 5 ·

Rack and power capacity

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“63MW facilities worldwide”

Deck FQ2 2026 Results · p. 5 ·

Rack and power capacity

Q3 '26 · further in the deck

“75MW facilities worldwide”

Deck FQ3 2026 Results · p. 5 ·

Rack and power capacity

Q4 '26 · further in the deck

“85+10MW total power capacity worldwide”

Deck FQ4 2026 Results · p. 5 ·

Manufacturing expansion

Q3 '24 · headline page

“Focused on scaling, optimizing, and expanding manufacturing capacity across San Jose, Taiwan, Malaysia, and beyond”

Deck Fiscal Q3 2024 Results · p. 3 ·

Manufacturing expansion

Q4 '24 · headline page

“Manufacturing Expansion: Scaling in San Jose, Taiwan, Malaysia, and beyond”

Deck Fiscal Q4 2024 Results · p. 3 ·

Manufacturing expansion

Q3 '25 · headline page

“Flexibility: global capacity aligned to navigate dynamic tariff scenarios with agility to meet localized customer demand • Manufacturing: expanding capacity, adding third campus in Silicon Valley, adding Mexico, scaling Taiwan, Malaysia”

Deck Fiscal Q3 2025 Results · p. 3 ·

Manufacturing expansion

Q4 '25 · headline page

“Flexibility: global capacity aligned to navigate dynamic tariff scenarios with agility to meet localized customer demand • Manufacturing: expanding capacity, adding third campus in Silicon Valley, adding Mexico, scaling Taiwan, Netherlands”

Deck Fiscal Q4 2025 Results · p. 3 ·

Manufacturing expansion

Q1 '26 · headline page

“Scaling and expanding manufacturing, increasing headcount in marketing, business development, and sales personnel 3”

Deck Fiscal Q1 2026 Results · p. 3 ·

Manufacturing expansion

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Expanding manufacturing for scale out infrastructure builds and streamline operations/logistics/automation for business efficiency”

Deck FQ2 2026 Results · p. 3 ·

Manufacturing expansion

Q3 '26 · headline page

“Scaling manufacturing to support expansion of partner platform solutions and scale infrastructure builds, and streamlining operations and logistics with automation for business efficiency”

Deck FQ3 2026 Results · p. 3 ·

Manufacturing expansion

Q4 '26 · further in the deck

“Manufacturing Expansion Planning Underway”

Deck FQ4 2026 Results · p. 8 ·

Order book and customer breadth

Q1 '26 · headline page

“customer engagements, new wins, and order sizes resulting in outstanding order book growth both domestically and internationally”

Deck Fiscal Q1 2026 Results · p. 3 ·

Order book and customer breadth

Q2 '26 · headline page

“Enabling key customer engagements, rapidly scaling new AI factories, resulting in continued domestic and international order book growth”

Deck FQ2 2026 Results · p. 3 ·

Order book and customer breadth

Q4 '26 · headline page

“Scaling nearly doubled revenue from $22B in FY25 to $39B in FY26 and large-scale billion-dollar customers from four in FY25 to nine in FY26 and $60B+ in back orders”

Deck FQ4 2026 Results · p. 3 ·

Green computing

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“GREEN COMPUTING FOR THE PLANET”

Deck Fiscal Q3 2024 Results · p. 9 ·

Green computing

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“GREEN COMPUTING FOR THE PLANET”

Deck Fiscal Q4 2024 Results · p. 9 ·

What they keep talking about · 10

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Time to market
On the CEO slide in all eight decks; "first to market" became "among the first" from Q1 FY26.
Outlook
Revenue and the guide headed the CEO slide in FY24, were gone from Q3 FY25 to Q3 FY26, and returned in Q4 FY26.
Liquid cooling
A 25-30% share target for new data centres from Q4 FY24, rolled forward a year twice, then dropped for rack counts.
DCBBS
Named in Q4 FY24, "SMCI 4.0" from Q3 FY25; volume shipments first claimed in Q2 FY26. No revenue figure on a slide.
Capacity
Racks a month until Q4 FY25 (5,000, then 6,000 with 3,000 liquid-cooled), then megawatts: 20MW to 85+10MW.
Factories
Every deck: San Jose, Taiwan, Malaysia, then Mexico, the Netherlands, Texas and the Middle East.
Order book
Growth in the order book from Q1 FY26, after two quarters of revenue slipping; the first figure, $60B+, in Q4 FY26.
Green
A full slide in both FY24 decks, gone from Q3 FY25 with the "Better Faster Greener" tagline.
New
Q4 FY26: a full-year table, nine customers above $1B (four in FY25), $60B+ of back orders, the FY27 guide. Oct '26: Q1 FY27 pre-announced at $18.5-19.5B against a $14.5-15.5B guide.
Quiet
Net cash, free cash flow and the cash cycle dropped after Q4 FY24; customer and regional mix after FY24; product mix after Q4 FY25; the long-term revenue target after Q4 FY24.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 10

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q1 25 – Q4 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26Q3 26Q4 26
Demand & customers23%32%35%37%55%48%27%48%
Growth & sales19%29%25%53%45%28%32%30%
Pricing & margins8%18%20%53%55%28%36%30%
Guidance & outlook27%32%30%37%55%45%18%19%
Capacity & supply19%11%25%37%18%21%18%22%
Capital & financing15%4%10%11%18%10%18%4%
Competition8%4%10%5%18%···
Products & technology15%21%30%5%36%14%9%19%
Macro & regulation··10%5%···7%
Other42%39%30%11%·31%32%26%
Questions2628201911292227

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 24 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · worsening

    A co-founder director indicted; the SEC, prosecutors and export enforcement all asking

    Wally Liaw was indicted on 19 Mar '26 over alleged diversion of export-controlled servers and left the board the next day. Since then: a grand jury subpoena, a second SEC subpoena and export-enforcement subpoenas about a named customer. Four securities class actions and over a dozen derivative suits.

  2. Tier 1 · improving

    Internal control still ruled ineffective after the 2024 auditor resignation

    EY resigned in Oct '24 citing integrity and board independence; filings ran late. BDO's FY26 opinion on internal control is adverse on one IT-controls weakness, three of four fixed. The CFO the special committee said to replace stayed until Oct '26.

  3. Tier 2 · stable

    The CEO's brothers make nearly all the chassis and power supplies

    Liang chairs the board and his wife sits on it; together they own 12.2%. Ablecom made 95.3% of FY26 chassis and Compuware 94.4% of power supplies: $725.7M, 2.1% of cost of sales. A $200M trade credit line to Compuware in Nov '25.

  4. Tier 2 · worsening

    Staggered board, rising dissent, bylaws tightened without a vote

    38.5% withheld from Tuan and 29.1% from Tally Liu, both on the pay committee, in Apr '26. Nomination and special-meeting rules tightened on 27 Aug '26. Five of six outside directors are 68-78.

  5. Tier 2 · worsening

    Shares up 10.5% in a year, with more to come

    594M to 657M common, mostly the June '26 offering, plus a $4.2B mandatory convertible preferred (about 134M more shares by Jun '29 at today's price), $4.7B of convertible notes and a $1.25B at-the-market program.

Accounting rule changes 1 in 1 quarters

  1. Q3 '25Non-GAAP adds back the loss on extinguishment of convertible notes as well as stock-based compensation

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026
Tuan (pay committee, '26)A board seat. Shareholders vote to keep this person on the board, the group that hires, pays and can fire the CEO. A no, or a withheld vote, says they want this director out, often because of the committee they sit on or a decision they signed off.—108.0M38.5%
T. Liu (pay committee, '26)A board seat.—81.7M29.1%
Liang (CEO, chair, '26)A board seat.—45.7M16.3%
Blair ('25)A board seat.22.4M—8.3%
Say on payExecutive pay. Shareholders say whether they accept what the top executives were paid. The vote is advisory: the board can ignore it, but a large no is a public rebuke and boards usually change the pay plan after one.14.1M19.8M7.1%
More shares for the equity planStock to pay staff and executives. Lets the company create new shares to hand out as pay. Every new share makes each existing share a slightly smaller slice of the company, so a no says shareholders think the dilution is too much.45.3M51.7M18.5%

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Form 4s, Oct '25-Oct '26SoldNote
Charles Liang and Sara Liu, CEO and director$12.2M300K joint shares, Sep-Oct '26, under her plan
George Kao, operations chief$1.9MNov '25, a month before his retirement; no plan
Sherman Tuan, director$1.6MNov '25 at $33.00; no plan