The Ledger

SNAPSnap Inc.

Industry Platform internet Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share in 12 months

$6.34 → $7.10

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$6 → $7

Show the math

today's multiple of 2× on the guided quarter's revenue at an annual rate, held flat, with revenue compounding at the 13-15% growth the Q3 '26 guide implies. No margin is applied: management guides only a gross-margin goal and next quarter's EBITDA. Company value plus net cash, less debt, divided by a share count that grows with stock pay. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle.

0$2$4$6$8$10Today (Oct 2026): $6, the market price$6TodayOct 202612 months (Oct 2027): $7 a share if management delivers$712 monthsOct 202724 months (Oct 2028): $8 a share if management delivers$824 monthsOct 202836 months (Oct 2029): $9 a share if management delivers$936 monthsOct 2029
SharesTodayIn 12 monthsOct 2027In 24 monthsOct 2028In 36 monthsOct 2029
Past pace: all sharesthe count grows about 0.3% a year as in the half to Jul '26: stock pay, mostly bought back$6$71697M sh$81701M sh$91706M sh
Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

  1. The multiple. Enterprise value today ($6 times 1691.2M Class A, B and C shares, plus convertible and senior notes, less cash and marketable securities) over the Q3 '26 revenue guide at an annual rate: 2×. Held, so none of the rise is a re-rating.
  2. The growth. The Q3 '26 guide of $1.70-1.74B against $1,507M a year earlier is 13-15% growth, the only rate management puts on revenue. It is carried through 2027-29, which are not guided at all.
  3. The margin. None is assumed. Snap guides next quarter's adjusted EBITDA, a gross margin above 60% and positive net income from 2027, none of which is an operating margin; holding price-to-sales holds today's margin implicitly.
  4. The shares. No stock is sold and none is bought beyond the past pace. The count grows as it did in the half to 30 Jul 2026, when about $0.5B of stock pay was mostly offset by $351M of buybacks. About 205M unvested awards and 46M convert shares are not in today's count.

Promises vs. what happened

16 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

PromiseMade inWhat happened
Q4 '24 revenue $1.51-1.56BQ3 '24 call$1,557MHeld
Q4 '24 EBITDA $210-260MQ3 '24 call$276MHeld
Q1 '25 revenue $1.325-1.36BQ4 '24 call$1,363M, then Q2 guide withdrawnHeld
2025 opex $2.70-2.75BQ4 '24 callcut $50M, then metHeld
Q3 '25 EBITDA $110-135MQ2 '25 call$182MHeld
$500M buybackQ3 '24done by Q2 '25Held
New ad formatsQ3 '24selling; no revenue givenHeld
Q2 '26 revenue $1.52-1.55BQ1 '26 call$1,599MHeld
Faster, broader growthQ3 '249-10% in 2025, 19% in Q2 '26Late
Consumer Specs in 2026Q2 '25'later this fall'; not out by Aug '26Open
1B monthly usersQ1 '25971M; goal not repeatedOpen
Gross margin above 60% in 2026Q4 '25 call57% and 59% in H1 '26Open
Q3 '26 revenue $1.70-1.74BQ2 '26 callnot yet reportedOpen
Profitable from 2027Q2 '26 callQ2 '26 loss $164MOpen
Perplexity, $400M from 2026Q3 '25ended in Q1 '26Missed
2026 infrastructure $1.60-1.65BQ4 '25 callraised to $1.65-1.70BMissed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24
Q4
'24
Q1
'25
Q2
'25
Q3
'25
Q4
'25
Q1
'26
Q2
'26

RevenuePage one since Q3 '24

UsersFirst seen Q3 '24

New revenueFirst seen Q3 '24

Ad formatsFirst seen Q3 '24

AR and AIFirst seen Q3 '24

SpecsFirst seen Q3 '24

BuybacksFirst seen Q3 '24

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.

Quarterly revenue and growth rate on the summary slide

Q3 '24 · headline page

“REVENUE WAS $1,373 MILLION IN Q3 2024, AN INCREASE OF 15% YoY”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 — Earnings Slides · p. 3 ·

Quarterly revenue and growth rate on the summary slide

Q4 '24 · headline page

“REVENUE WAS $1,557 MILLION IN Q4 2024, AN INCREASE OF 14% YoY”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2024 — Earnings Slides · p. 3 ·

Quarterly revenue and growth rate on the summary slide

Q1 '25 · headline page

“REVENUE WAS $1,363 MILLION IN Q1 2025, AN INCREASE OF 14% YoY”

Deck First Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 3 ·

Quarterly revenue and growth rate on the summary slide

Q2 '25 · headline page

“REVENUE WAS $1,345 MILLION IN Q2 2025, AN INCREASE OF 9% YoY”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 3 ·

Quarterly revenue and growth rate on the summary slide

Q3 '25 · headline page

“REVENUE WAS $1,507 MILLION IN Q3 2025, AN INCREASE OF 10% YoY”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 3 ·

Quarterly revenue and growth rate on the summary slide

Q4 '25 · headline page

“REVENUE WAS $1,716 MILLION IN Q4 2025, AN INCREASE OF 10% YoY 1Constant currency revenue increased 9% to $1,695 million, compared to $1,557 million of GAAP revenue in the prior year.”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 3 ·

Quarterly revenue and growth rate on the summary slide

Q1 '26 · headline page

“REVENUE WAS $1,529 MILLION IN Q1 2026, AN INCREASE OF 12% YoY 1Constant currency revenue increased 10% year-over-year to $1,500 million in Q1 2026.”

Deck First Quarter 2026 — Earnings Slides · p. 3 ·

Quarterly revenue and growth rate on the summary slide

Q2 '26 · headline page

“REVENUE WAS $1,599 MILLION IN Q2 2026, AN INCREASE OF 19% YoY 1Constant currency revenue increased 18% year-over-year to $1,591 million in Q2 2026.”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 — Earnings Slides · p. 3 ·

Community growth (DAU, then MAU)

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“DAUs were 443 million in Q3 2024, an increase of 37 million, or 9% year-over-year.”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Community growth (DAU, then MAU)

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“DAUs were 453 million in Q4 2024, an increase of 39 million, or 9% year-over-year.”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2024 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Community growth (DAU, then MAU)

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Q1 marked an important milestone for Snap, as we reached more than 900 million monthly active users (MAU), on the way to our goal of 1 billion MAU.”

Deck First Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Community growth (DAU, then MAU)

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“The Snapchat community continues to grow, reaching 932 million global monthly active users (MAU) in Q2, an increase of 64 million or 7% year-over-year.”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Community growth (DAU, then MAU)

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“The Snapchat community continues to grow, reaching 943 million global monthly active users (MAU) in Q3, an increase of 60 million or 7% year-over-year.”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Community growth (DAU, then MAU)

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“The Snapchat community continues to grow, reaching 946 million global monthly active users (MAU) in Q4, an increase of 51 million or 6% year-over-year.”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Community growth (DAU, then MAU)

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“The Snapchat community continues to grow, reaching 956 million global monthly active users (MAU) in Q1, an increase of 43 million or 5% year-over-year and Global Daily Active Users (DAU) grew to 483 million or 5% year-over-year.”

Deck First Quarter 2026 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Community growth (DAU, then MAU)

Q2 '26 · further in the deck

“GLOBAL MAU INCREASED 39 MILLION, OR 4%, YoY”

Deck Second Quarter 2026 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Accelerating and diversifying revenue

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“We are focused on accelerating and diversifying our revenue growth:”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Accelerating and diversifying revenue

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“Other Revenue, the majority of which is Snapchat+ subscription revenue, grew 131% year-over-year in 2024 and exited the year with an annualized revenue run rate well over $500 million.”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2024 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Accelerating and diversifying revenue

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“Other Revenue, the majority of which is Snapchat+ subscription revenue, increased 75% year-over-year in Q1.”

Deck First Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Accelerating and diversifying revenue

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Other Revenue, the majority of which is Snapchat+ subscription revenue, increased 64% year-over-year in Q2.”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 5 ·

Accelerating and diversifying revenue

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Other Revenue, the majority of which is Snapchat+ subscription revenue, increased 54% year-over-year to $190 million in Q3.”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 5 ·

Accelerating and diversifying revenue

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“Other Revenue increased 62% year-over-year to $232 million in Q4, with subscribers growing 71% year-over-year to reach 24 million in Q4.”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 5 ·

Accelerating and diversifying revenue

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“We directly monetized the growing engagement on Snapchat, with Other Revenue increasing 87% year-over-year to $285 million.”

Deck First Quarter 2026 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Sponsored Snaps and new ad formats

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“We are in the early stages of experimenting with two new ad formats, Sponsored Snaps and Promoted Places, to help businesses reach Snapchatters in engaging ways across our differentiated service.”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Sponsored Snaps and new ad formats

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“In Q4, Sponsored Snaps and Promoted Places grew the number of unique Snapchatters reached by advertising partners, delivering a 30% increase in reach on average in the US.”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2024 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Sponsored Snaps and new ad formats

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“In addition to the Sponsored Snap takeover buys launched last quarter, we began early testing of Sponsored Snaps in our auction in Q1 as we look to expand Sponsored Snaps to additional bidding objectives.”

Deck First Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Sponsored Snaps and new ad formats

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“Sponsored Snaps are now driving an 18% lift in unique converters across app installs and app purchases.”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 5 ·

Sponsored Snaps and new ad formats

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“Sponsored Snaps have proven to be one of the most effective ways for brands to join the conversation, driving up to 22% more conversions and achieving up to 19% lower costs per action (CPAs) when included in an advertiser's broader Snap campaign mix.”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 5 ·

Sponsored Snaps and new ad formats

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“In Q4, Sponsored Snaps click-through rates grew 7% and click-through purchases grew 17% from Q3 to Q4, during which numerous format and ranking improvements were introduced.”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 5 ·

Sponsored Snaps and new ad formats

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“We launched AI Sponsored Snaps, a new format that enables brands to engage Snapchatters through interactive, AI-powered conversations in Chat and extends our strategy of delivering more personalized, high-intent advertising experiences.”

Deck First Quarter 2026 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

AR Lenses and generative AI

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“We invested in our augmented reality platform:”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 — Earnings Slides · p. 5 ·

AR Lenses and generative AI

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“More than 400 million Snapchatters engaged with new Gen AI Lenses more than 4 billion times in Q4.”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2024 — Earnings Slides · p. 5 ·

AR Lenses and generative AI

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“We introduced new advanced AI video Lenses, powered by our in-house generative video model.”

Deck First Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 5 ·

AR Lenses and generative AI

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“In Q2, more than 350 million Snapchatters engaged with AR every day on average.”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 6 ·

AR Lenses and generative AI

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“More than 500 million users have engaged with Gen AI Lenses over 6 billion times, underscoring the growing demand for AI-powered creative tools on the platform.”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 6 ·

AR Lenses and generative AI

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“More than 700 million users have engaged with Gen AI Lenses over 17 billion times, underscoring the growing demand for AI-powered creative tools on our service.”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 6 ·

AR Lenses and generative AI

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“Our community used AR Lenses in our Snapchat camera more than 9 billion times per day on average in Q1, driven by 75% of Snapchatters engaging with AR every day on average.”

Deck First Quarter 2026 — Earnings Slides · p. 4 ·

Spectacles and Specs

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“We introduced the fifth generation of Spectacles, our new see-through, standalone AR glasses that enable developers to use Lenses and experience the world together with friends, powered by Snap OS.”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 — Earnings Slides · p. 5 ·

Spectacles and Specs

Q4 '24 · further in the deck

“We are building the next generation AR operating system for Spectacles:”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2024 — Earnings Slides · p. 5 ·

Spectacles and Specs

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“We are building the next-generation AR operating system for Spectacles:”

Deck First Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 5 ·

Spectacles and Specs

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“We announced plans to launch our first consumer-ready Specs AR glasses in 2026, marking an important and exciting milestone for Snap and a critical step toward realizing our long-term vision for AR.”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 7 ·

Spectacles and Specs

Q3 '25 · further in the deck

“In Q3, we launched Snap OS 2.0, a major update that lays the foundation for the public debut of our next-generation Specs in 2026.”

Deck Third Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 7 ·

Spectacles and Specs

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“We announced that Lenses built today on Spectacles will be compatible on Specs, which will launch for the public this year.”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 7 ·

Spectacles and Specs

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“We expanded our strategic collaboration with Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. to bring their industry-leading Snapdragon system-on-a-chip (SoC) to future generations of Specs, strengthening the platform for developers and partners.”

Deck First Quarter 2026 — Earnings Slides · p. 5 ·

Share repurchases and dilution

Q3 '24 · further in the deck

“AUTHORIZED A NEW $500M STOCK REPURCHASE PROGRAM DILUTION WAS 0.6% IN Q3 2024 1Diluted net income (loss) per share is calculated using weighted average shares outstanding during the period.”

Deck Third Quarter 2024 — Earnings Slides · p. 12 ·

Share repurchases and dilution

Q1 '25 · further in the deck

“REPURCHASED 27.3 MILLION SHARES IN Q1 2025 AT A COST OF $257 MILLION”

Deck First Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 12 ·

Share repurchases and dilution

Q2 '25 · further in the deck

“CUMULATIVE SHARE REPURCHASES OF 208.8 MILLION SHARES FOR $2.0 BILLION AT AN AVERAGE PRICE OF $9.59”

Deck Second Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 15 ·

Share repurchases and dilution

Q4 '25 · further in the deck

“REPURCHASED 29.4 MILLION SHARES IN Q4 2025”

Deck Fourth Quarter 2025 — Earnings Slides · p. 15 ·

Share repurchases and dilution

Q1 '26 · further in the deck

“$350 MILLION REPURCHASED IN Q1 2026 WITH $400 MILLION REMAINING”

Deck First Quarter 2026 — Earnings Slides · p. 13 ·

What they keep talking about · 9

The themes that show up deck after deck, and the ones that disappear.

Revenue
The headline of every summary slide: 15% growth in Q3 '24, 9-10% through 2025, 19% in Q2 '26.
Users
DAU led until Q1 '25; MAU led after. Q4 '25 gives MAU but not the DAU dip to 474M.
New revenue
Other Revenue, mostly Snapchat+, grew 54-131% a year and reached $285M in Q1 '26; not in the Q2 '26 deck.
Ad formats
Sponsored Snaps reported every deck to Q1 '26 with lift and click-through figures, never revenue.
AR and AI
A full slide to Q4 '25, folded into the user section in Q1 '26, gone in Q2 '26.
Specs
Renamed Specs in Q2 '25 with a 2026 consumer date; repeated to Q1 '26, absent from Q2 '26.
Buybacks
The share-count slide headline through Q1 '26; Q2 '26 has none, with unvested awards at 199M.
New
Q1 '26: regional revenue by billing address. Q2 '26 call: free cash flow per share as the first goal, profit from 2027.
Quiet
Infrastructure cost per DAU left the headlines in Q4 '25. Perplexity and the 1B-user goal not repeated. Q2 '26: no highlight pages.
Every quarterly report we’ve saved · 15

The press releases and shareholder letters behind this page.

Archived as text; the links open the copies filed on EDGAR or the investor-relations site.

What analysts asked them

8 calls · Q3 24 – Q2 26

The last eight earnings calls: what analysts kept asking about, which questions got dodged, and how much the CEO did the talking.

Share of questions by topic, call by call. A topic that suddenly dominates is usually the problem. The last row is how much of the answering the CEO did, rather than the CFO or others.

Share of questions about…Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
Demand & customers·25%22%12%···10%
Growth & sales38%50%56%62%33%29%57%30%
Pricing & margins·25%11%25%33%·29%30%
Guidance & outlook38%38%33%38%33%29%29%40%
Capacity & supply·12%11%···14%·
Capital & financing·12%·12%33%14%·30%
Competition····17%·14%10%
Products & technology62%38%22%25%17%43%43%40%
Macro & regulation·12%33%·17%14%14%·
Other38%25%11%12%17%29%·10%
Questions889867710

Who’s in charge, who’s selling

read from the filings · 20 Oct 2026

Shareholder votes against the board and pay, plus which executives have been selling their own shares.

  1. Tier 1 · stable

    The listed shares have no vote; two founders hold over 99% of it

    Spiegel 53.1% and Murphy 46.4% of the votes on about 9% and 10% of the shares. Directors and the auditor are approved by their written consent; there is no proxy and no say-on-pay vote. Class C converts only on death or a large sell-down.

  2. Tier 2 · worsening

    Legal fees to the CEO's father's firm: $12M to $52M a year

    Munger, Tolles & Olson billed $12.2M in 2023, $51.2M in 2024 and $52.3M in 2025; both general counsels in the period came from it. Snap also leases the founders' aircraft for $0 and pays the running costs.

  3. Tier 2 · stable

    Stock pay near 17% of revenue, bought back to hold the count flat

    $1,017M of stock pay in 2025; about $1.35B spent on buybacks since late '24 left Class A shares about flat. Unvested awards rose 43% in the year to Jun '26, to 205M.

  4. Tier 2 · worsening

    CFO, general counsel, business chief and engineering head out in thirteen months

    Young (Aug '25), O'Sullivan (Dec '25), Andersen two days after a 16% headcount cut (May '26), Mohan (Dec '26). Each 8-K says no disagreement; none says why.

  5. Tier 2 · live

    Youth-harm and attorney-general trials through 2027

    Bellwether trials from Oct '26, a school-district trial in Feb '27, Nevada and New Mexico in Aug '27. Earlier cases settled on confidential terms; nothing accrued for the platform cases in what was read.

Accounting rule changes 2 in 5 quarters

  1. Q1 '25User counting refined in Q1 2025 to record activity more accurately
  2. Q1 '26Regional revenue attributed by customer billing address, ad revenue still by impression location

Where shareholders voted no

At each annual meeting shareholders vote on who sits on the board, what the executives are paid and whether the company may create more shares. These are the votes that drew the most "no"s at the last two meetings: the shares voted against (or withheld) each year, then what share of all votes cast that was. Under each one, what the vote was about and what a no means.

20252026Share 2026

Insiders who sold the most stock

Reported sales by executives and directors, biggest first.

Form 4s, Oct '25-Sep '26SoldNote
Murphy, co-founder and CTO$63.7M11.3M shares, all planned
Spiegel, co-founder and CEO$35.3M4.7M shares, all planned
Briers, general counsel$3.4Mafter a $24.0M new-hire award
Mohan, business chief$2.9Mnone marked as a plan
Hott, CFO$2.0Mfrom May '26