TMCTMC the metals company Inc.

Industry Mining materials Updated 28 Sep 2026 Price 23 Oct 2026

If management hits its targets, one share by the end of 2028

$2.43 → $3.04

If management hits its targets

from IR material and Earnings Calls

What one share would be worth today and in 12, 24 and 36 months if the company does exactly what its management has promised, next to what a share costs now. Worked out from the targets management gave in its own results decks and earnings calls.

$2 → $2

One guided year on: +11% a year. 2027 is the year management has guided, and it is still running 12 months from the price date, so the 12-month bar, $2.43, stays at or near today's price: the model counts no growth until a guided year is over and only the share count moves. Carried one year past it on management's own figures, the same ones the 24- and 36-month bars use, a share works out to $3.04 at the end of 2028, 26 months from the price date. Climbing there at an even pace from today's $2.43 is +11% a year, $2.69 in 12 months, and that is the figure the Companies page lists.

Show the math

company value if delivered, less net debt, divided by the shares. Value is today's company value per tonne of nameplate capacity, held as capacity grows from the 3.0 Mt-a-year system due to start commissioning in Q4 '27 toward the 7–11 Mt a year their studies describe for 2031. No price, cost or margin is assumed, because management has given none. Each figure management gave as a range is taken at its middle. Up to the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the company's value is today's and only the share count moves, so the figure is held at today's price rather than shown falling with the dilution.

Shares	Today	In 12 monthsOct 2027	In 24 monthsOct 2028	In 36 monthsOct 2029
Shares growing at their past pace+8.6% a year, Aug '25 to Aug '26, a year with no offering; no raise for the build is counted	$2	$2487M sh · held	$3529M sh	$4574M sh

Show the math, step by step

How we got there: company value if the plan is delivered, minus debt, divided by all the shares, including the new ones they’d have to sell to pay for it.

Capacity. 3.0 Mt of wet nodules a year from the one system Allseas is building, commissioning to begin in Q4 '27 (Q2 '26 deck), and treated as in place from 2027. Then 1–2 Mt a year added: the low end is the Q2 '26 deck's undated scale-up from 3 to 7 Mt a year, dated to 2031; the high end is the pre-feasibility study's 11 Mt a year from 2031 (Q2 '25 deck).
Today's value per tonne. Today's company value is spread over the 3.0 Mt and held per tonne as capacity grows. That is generous to the plan: today's price already pays for the permit, the studies and the resource beyond the first system.
Shares. 441.1M at 11 Aug 2026, growing at the pace of the year to August 2026, which held no offering. Unvested RSUs, options and warrants are left out, and so is any raise for the build, which the company says it needs and is seeking.
Held. To the end of 2027, the year management has guided, the company's value is today's and only the share count moves, so the figure in October 2027 is held at today's price, $2; the arithmetic alone gives $2.
Arithmetic. (company value − net debt) ÷ shares. Net debt today is $46M: the $145.0M royalty liability TMC carries as debt, less $98.7M of cash. The build is not charged.

Promises vs. what happened

15 claims · 8 decks

Every target management put in a slide deck, and whether they hit it, missed it, or quietly dropped it.

Dates slip; the money comes from somewhere else. Two of eleven settled promises held. The permit and first-production dates are still open, and both have been reworded.

Promise	Made in	What happened
PAMCO trial done early '25	Q3 '24	Feb '25	Held
No raise in the near term (Nov '25)	Q3 '25	none since	Held
Study before the June '25 filing	Q4 '24	4 Aug '25	Late
New shelf and ATM by end '25	Q2 '25	shelf Mar '26; no ATM	Late
NOAA rule around Dec '25	Q3 '25	21 Jan '26	Late
Allseas deal 'in the coming days'	Q4 '25	45 days; cost split changed	Late
Mariana feasibility agreement	Q4 '25	work began, no agreement	Late
Cash use under $5M a quarter	Q3 '24	$9–20M a quarter	Dropped
$37M raise funds it to the permit	Q1 '25	Korea Zinc added $85M; no permit	Open
Permit by Q1 '27	Q4 '25	'a few months' late, no quarter	Open
First production Q4 '27	Q2 '25	now 'commissioning to begin'	Open
US government support in 2026	Q4 '25	talks, no award	Open
NORI's ISA application, 27 Jun '25	Q3 '24	filed with NOAA instead	Missed
ISA Mining Code in 2025	Q3 '24	no target date	Missed
Brownsville land 'in the near future'	Q4 '25	no lease	Missed

What they’re pitching

the headline page, deck by deck

The headline from each quarterly results deck over two years, so you can see what they want you to focus on, and when it changes.

Q3
'24Q4
'24Q1
'25Q2
'25Q3
'25Q4
'25Q1
'26Q2
'26

NOAA permitPage one since Q4 '25

ISAFirst seen Q3 '24

LiquidityOff page one Q4 '25

Study NPVOff page one Q1 '26

Peer valueFirst seen Q3 '24

EnvironmentFirst seen Q3 '24

US policyFirst seen Q3 '24

ProcessingFirst seen Q3 '24

AllseasFirst seen Q2 '25

on the headline page further in the deck not in the deck▲ onto page one▼ off page one● first mentionTap a mark for the quote.